Calculation method of foundation pit system reliability based on conditional probability

SUN Chang-ning; CAO Jing; SONG Zhi-gang; ZHAO Hui-min; GUI Yue

English Version Journal Login

您当前的位置：

首页 >

文章列表页 >

Calculation method of foundation pit system reliability based on conditional probability

更新时间：2026-06-25

- Calculation method of foundation pit system reliability based on conditional probability
- Vol. 35, Issue 4, (2014)
- 作者机构：
  
  昆明理工大学土木工程学院,昆明,650500
- 作者简介：
- 基金信息：
- DOI：
  CLC： TU470
- Online First：18 April 2014，
  
  Published：2014
- 稿件说明：
移动端阅览
SUN Chang-ning, CAO Jing, SONG Zhi-gang, et al. Calculation method of foundation pit system reliability based on conditional probability[J]. 2014, 35(4).
DOI：

SUN Chang-ning, CAO Jing, SONG Zhi-gang, et al. Calculation method of foundation pit system reliability based on conditional probability[J]. 2014, 35(4). DOI：

摘要

基坑存在多种失效模式，考虑失效模式之间的相关性，双界限法计算体系失效概率存在计算结果区间范围较大的弊端。利用均匀试验和非参数回归方法建立响应面，在响应面的基础上，对Monte Carlo模拟生成的随机参数进行插值，得到各个失效模式指标，结合Pearson相关系数检验两两失效模式之间的相关性，用条件概率方法计算基坑体系失效概率，提出了基于条件概率考虑多失效模式相关的基坑体系可靠度分析方法。在此基础上，通过1个典型算例进行对比分析，计算结果表明，该方法不仅计算简便，而且结果可靠，其结果可为基坑体系可靠度分析理论提供一条新的途径。

Abstract

There are many failure modes in the foundation pit engineering. Considering the correlation between failure modes

the range of system failure probability is large using the Breadth Border method or the narrow bounds method. The response surface is established by using the uniform test and nonparametric regression method. On this basis

in order to obtain the index of each failure mode

the random parameters generated by the Monte Carlo simulation are interpolated. Combined with the Pearson correlation coefficient

the correlation is tested between failure modes. Considering the correlation of multiple failure modes

the system reliability analysis method of foundation pit engineering based on conditional probability is put forward. As a typical example

a system failure probability of foundation pit is analyzed by using the conditional probability method. A case study shows that the method is simple and reliable in calculation

so as to provide a new way for the system reliability theory of foundation pit.

关键词

Keywords

references

Views

1751

下载量

CSCD

Alert me when the article has been cited

提交

Tools

Publicity Resources

Gaussian process-based dynamic response surface method for estimating slope failure probability

Study of reliability for loess high slopes in Gansu area

Discussion and improvement on Monte Carlo method and geometric method

Reliability analysis of pile groups with different lengths in expansive soils with spatial variation considering the effect of rainfall

Reliability analysis of casing of underground salt rock gas storage during operation period

Related Author

SU Guo-shao

ZHAO Wei

PENG Li-feng

YAN Liu-bin

LI Ping

HUANG Li-juan

LI Zhen-jiang

LI Xin-sheng

Related Institution

Key Laboratory of Disaster Prevention and Structural Safety of Ministry of Education, School of Civil and Architecture Engineering, Guangxi University

Department of Geological Engineering, Chang’an University

Postdoctoral Porgramme of Chengdu Hydroelectric Investigation & Design Institute of SPC (CHIDI)

Research Institute of Geotechnical Engineering, Hohai University

Chengdu Hydroelectric Inverstigation & Design Institute of SPC(CHIDI)

AI问答

⁰