Investigation on allowable factors of safety in dam slope stability analysis under seismic conditions

XU Jia-cheng; CHEN Zu-yu; SUN Ping; WANG Yu-jie

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Investigation on allowable factors of safety in dam slope stability analysis under seismic conditions

更新时间：2026-06-25

- Investigation on allowable factors of safety in dam slope stability analysis under seismic conditions
- Vol. 32, Issue S1, (2011)
- 作者机构：
  
  中国水利水电科学研究院岩土工程研究所,北京,100048
- 作者简介：
- 基金信息：
- DOI：
  CLC： TV641
- Online First：16 May 2011，
  
  Published：2011
- 稿件说明：
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XU Jia-cheng, CHEN Zu-yu, SUN Ping, et al. Investigation on allowable factors of safety in dam slope stability analysis under seismic conditions[J]. 2011, 32(S1).
DOI：

XU Jia-cheng, CHEN Zu-yu, SUN Ping, et al. Investigation on allowable factors of safety in dam slope stability analysis under seismic conditions[J]. 2011, 32(S1). DOI：

摘要

地震工况下的坝坡抗滑稳定性核算一直是大坝安全性评价的重要环节，采用科学合理的计算方法是评价坝坡安全性的基本保证。本文从概率极限分析的角度探讨了坝坡稳定性可靠度分析的概率意义，提出了将地震发生当做概率事件的坝坡可靠度计算方法。为验证将地震超越概率纳入坝坡稳定分析中的合理性，本文通过两个典型算例和小浪底坝坡典型剖面的抗滑稳定性分析研究了坝坡在地震工况下的单一安全系数与可靠指标的变化规律。研究结果表明在坝坡稳定分析中引入超越概率计算所得结果与工程实际相符，与以往的将地震发生当做确定性事件计算方法相比，该方法显著提高了坝坡的可靠指标值；比较可靠指标与单一安全系数的取值标准显示出在坝坡稳定分析中合理地引入地震概率分析方法能够保证坝坡在地震和正常工况下有相近的可靠指标值

Abstract

Checking the dam's stability under seismic conditions has always been an important job for dam’s security; and using the reasonable calculation method is the basic guarantee for right result. The probability mean of reliability analysis for dam slope's stability is discussed based on the probabilistic limit analysis and the formulation what considered earthquake as a probability event for slope's reliability is deduced. To demonstrate the rationality of bringing exceeding probability into dam slope stability analysis

two typical examples and Xiaolangdi dam slope are taken to investigate the variation of single safety factor and reliability index under seismic condition. The research results show that the bringing exceeding probability into dam slope stability calculation can increase the value of reliability index to match the engineering practice compared to consider earthquake as deterministic events and can match the allowable factors of safety in specifications

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