Discussion on two methods for predicting velocity of landslides

QIN Yun; JIANG Qing-hui; GUO Hui-li

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Discussion on two methods for predicting velocity of landslides

更新时间：2026-06-25

- Discussion on two methods for predicting velocity of landslides
- Vol. 29, Issue S1, (2008)
- 作者机构：
  
  1. 黄河勘测规划设计有限公司,郑州,450003
  2. 武汉大学土木工程学院,武汉,430072
- 作者简介：
- 基金信息：
- DOI：
  CLC： O241
- Online First：15 April 2016，
  
  Published：2008
- 稿件说明：
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QIN Yun, JIANG Qing-hui, GUO Hui-li. Discussion on two methods for predicting velocity of landslides[J]. 2008, 29(S1).
DOI：

QIN Yun, JIANG Qing-hui, GUO Hui-li. Discussion on two methods for predicting velocity of landslides[J]. 2008, 29(S1). DOI：

摘要

滑坡速度预测一直是一个比较复杂的问题。采用潘家铮提出的基于垂直条分的滑速计算方法求解条块的运动速度，并以三峡库区某滑坡为实例，对其滑动加速度及速度进行分析。同时，采用不连续变形分析方法（DDA）对滑坡体的滑动全过程进行了模拟，二者对滑速发展趋势的预测基本吻合

而且DDA模拟较全面地反映了滑坡运动在时间和空间的发展变化特征，清楚地再现了滑坡发生、发展、失稳的全过程，可作为预测滑坡滑速的有效分析方法。

Abstract

The prediction of velocity of landslide is a quite complex problem. By using the vertical slice method

the velocity of landslide mass is calculated by the kinematics principle. Then this vertical slice method is applied to a landslide case in Three Gorges Reservoir area. The acceleration and velocity of the landslide mass are analyzed by the vertical slice method. The discontinuous deformation analysis (DDA) is also adopted to simulate the movement process of landslide. The velocities of landslide predicted by the DDA agree well with the ones by the vertical slice method. By using the DDA to simulate the landslide

the initiation of failure and the subsequent kinematics process can be understood clearly.

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