Reliability analysis of reservoir slope stability

TAN Xiao-hui; YU Bin; WANG Mao-song; PAN Wen

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Reliability analysis of reservoir slope stability

更新时间：2026-06-25

- Reliability analysis of reservoir slope stability
- Vol. 29, Issue 12, (2008)
- 作者机构：
  
  1. 合肥工业大学资源与环境工程学院,合肥,230009
  2. 安徽省水利厅,合肥,230022
  3. 安徽省水利水电勘测设计院,合肥,230022
- 作者简介：
- 基金信息：
- DOI：
  CLC： TU457
- Online First：11 August 2013，
  
  Published：2008
- 稿件说明：
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TAN Xiao-hui, YU Bin, WANG Mao-song, et al. Reliability analysis of reservoir slope stability[J]. 2008, 29(12).
DOI：

TAN Xiao-hui, YU Bin, WANG Mao-song, et al. Reliability analysis of reservoir slope stability[J]. 2008, 29(12). DOI：

摘要

根据水库边坡的勘察资料，确定了边坡稳定性分析的力学模型，推导了滑面面积的计算公式，采用不平衡推力传递法进行了边坡稳定的定值法分析和可靠度分析。可靠度分析中，分别讨论了滑面强度参数及几何参数的变异性对边坡稳定性的影响。计算结果表明，不考虑参数变异性的定值法分析结果所得边坡的安全系数过高，偏于危险。水库边坡的可靠度分析结果表明：滑面几何参数的变异性对边坡稳定的可靠指标或失效概率影响很大。因此，对于岩质边坡的稳定性分析，不仅要重视研究滑面强度参数的变异性，也要重视研究滑面几何参数的变异性。

Abstract

Based on the investigation data of the reservoir

the mechanical model of slope stability of the right bank dam shoulder is set up; and the computational formulas are deduced for calculating the cross-sectional area of each slip block. Then

slope stability analyses of both definite method and reliability method are carried out by using unbalance thrust force transfer method. The influences of the variability of shear strength parameters and geometric parameters of slip surfaces on slope stability are discussed in the reliability analysis. It is demonstrated that the variability of geometric parameters of slip surfaces has large effect on the reliability index and failure probability. Therefore

it is necessary to pay much attention to the variability of geometric parameters of slip surfaces as well as the variability of slip surface shear strength parameters.

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