To solve the problem of quantitative risk evaluation of the ground settlement

the interval estimation method to predict the ground surface maximum settlement is put forward in this paper

and thereafter the risk evaluation index is defined. The method employs the Response Surface Method(RSM) to approximately express the relation between the surface maximum settlement and the ground parameters

and determines the interval of the surface maximum settlement based on the interval analysis theory

which can deal with the effect of the parameter indeterminacy on calculation results. In the end

the application of the method is explained by taking a side drift of some station main body under construction in Beijing for example.