Prediction of grey system model on convergence of surrounding rock deformation of Longtan tunnel

DING Wan-tao; LI Shu-cai; WANG Shu-gang

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Prediction of grey system model on convergence of surrounding rock deformation of Longtan tunnel

更新时间：2026-06-25

- Prediction of grey system model on convergence of surrounding rock deformation of Longtan tunnel
- Vol. 27, Issue S1, (2006)
- 作者机构：
  
  山东大学岩土与结构工程研究中心,济南,250061
- 作者简介：
- 基金信息：
- DOI：
  CLC： TD315
- Online First：15 December 2006，
  
  Published：2006
- 稿件说明：
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DING Wan-tao, LI Shu-cai, WANG Shu-gang. Prediction of grey system model on convergence of surrounding rock deformation of Longtan tunnel[J]. 2006, 27(S1).
DOI：

DING Wan-tao, LI Shu-cai, WANG Shu-gang. Prediction of grey system model on convergence of surrounding rock deformation of Longtan tunnel[J]. 2006, 27(S1). DOI：

摘要

基于龙潭隧道开挖过程中的围岩收敛变形资料，通过对具有一定随机离散性和波动性的位移-时间顺序的数据列进行累加处理，建立了GM(1

1)灰色预报模型，预测了围岩收敛变形的未来趋势，并对预测位移进行一次累减，得到位移速率预测公式，预测围岩收敛趋于稳定的时间。两个断面的预测值和实测值的比较结果表明所建预测模型可取得比较好的效果。

Abstract

Based on the convergence of surrounding rock of Long-tan tunnel during excavation

a grey forecast model of GM(1

1) is established by dealing with a list of data on time-dependent relative displacement with randomicity and undulation. It is used to predict the future convergence of surrounding rock deformation. The formula of velocity is gained by analyzing the prediction displacement. The time of stability of surrounding rock is forecasted by this formula. The forecast results of two sections are close to the data actually obtained from monitoring.

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Related Author

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Related Institution

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