Application of average combinatorial forecast in equal weight
to the displacement in the deformation of slope

WANG Hong-xing; TANG Hui-ming; WANG Guan

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Application of average combinatorial forecast in equal weight to the displacement in the deformation of slope

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- Application of average combinatorial forecast in equal weight to the displacement in the deformation of slope
- Vol. 26, Issue S2, (2005)
- 作者机构：
  
  中国地质大学工程学院,武汉,430074
- 作者简介：
- 基金信息：
- DOI：
  CLC： TB115
- Online First：16 December 2005，
  
  Published：2005
- 稿件说明：
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WANG Hong-xing, TANG Hui-ming, WANG Guan. Application of average combinatorial forecast in equal weight to the displacement in the deformation of slope[J]. 2005, 26(S2).
DOI：

WANG Hong-xing, TANG Hui-ming, WANG Guan. Application of average combinatorial forecast in equal weight to the displacement in the deformation of slope[J]. 2005, 26(S2). DOI：

摘要

单一预测模型仅能体现系统的局部，其预测精度较差。为此，研究了组合预测方法在斜坡变形位移中的应用，它将各种预测方法进行适当的组合，综合利用各种预测方法所提供的有用信息进行预测。首先建立5种单一预测模型分别进行了预测，然后把各个预测模型的预测结果等权平均进行组合预测。并通过对链子崖危岩体监测点位移值的预测，预测结果表明其绝对误差较低，精度较高

大大地提高了预测的精度和稳健性。

Abstract

The application of combinatorial forecasting method to determining displacement due to slope deformation is described. It suitably combines with models of forecast

synthetically uses the very useful information in all models of forecast. At first

five models of forecast: moving average model; exponential smoothing model; exponential trend model and regression analysis model are established and then respectively forecasts to the displacement value in deformation of hazardous rock masses. Finally

the results of forecast from every model are averaged in equal weight and they are synthetically forecast again. An actual example

the forecast of displacement values at observation point of Lianziya hazardous rock masses is applied. The forecast results show that their absolute errors are less and the precision is higher. It greatly improves the steadiness and the precision of forecast.

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Related Institution

State Key Laboratory for Geomechanics and Deep Underground Engineering, China University of Mining & Technology

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Key Laboratory for the Exploitation of Southwestern Resources and the Environmental Disaster Control Engineering, Ministry of Education, Chongqing University

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