Preliminary research on engineering decision-making based on reliability theory and risk analysis

LIU Ning; JIA Chao; CHEN Jin

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Preliminary research on engineering decision-making based on reliability theory and risk analysis

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- Preliminary research on engineering decision-making based on reliability theory and risk analysis
- Vol. 25, Issue 8期　刊出日, (2004)
- 作者机构：
  
  1. 河海大学土木工程学院,江苏,南京,210098
  2. 长江科学院,湖北,武汉,430010
- 作者简介：
- 基金信息：
- DOI：
  CLC： X820.4
- Online First：25 July 2014，
  
  Published：2004
- 稿件说明：
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LIU Ning, JIA Chao, CHEN Jin. Preliminary research on engineering decision-making based on reliability theory and risk analysis[J]. 2004, 25(8期　刊出日).
DOI：

LIU Ning, JIA Chao, CHEN Jin. Preliminary research on engineering decision-making based on reliability theory and risk analysis[J]. 2004, 25(8期　刊出日). DOI：

摘要

客观存在的诸多不确定性因素，使得工程系统的规划和设计不可避免地存在着风险。通过运用结构可靠度计算的优化算法，将工程结构的风险率计算转化为对结构可靠指标的计算，给出了基于可靠性理论的决策分析方法和两个算例，算例1以挡土墙设计为例，阐述了决策分析方法的有效性和实用性。算例2对南水北调中线工程穿黄方案的选择问题，给出了一个简单的决策模式。

Abstract

Many uncertainties caused unavoidable risk in engineering planning and engineering decision. The paper shows how to calculate the risk rate through reliability index

and provides decision-making method based on reliability theory. Two examples are given in the paper. As example one a retaining wall design is performed to show the method’s efficiency and practicality. How to choose the best case between aqueduct and tunnel in South-North Water Transfer Project of Middle Route is explained in example two and the simple decision mode is described.

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