Probabilistic power flow calculation based on stochastic response surface method by stochastic reduced order model and Kriging optimizations
|更新时间:2026-06-04
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Probabilistic power flow calculation based on stochastic response surface method by stochastic reduced order model and Kriging optimizations
Vol. 45, Issue 6, (2026)
作者机构:
1. 西安科技大学电气与控制工程学院,陕西,西安,710054
2. 国网新疆电力有限公司福海县供电公司,新疆 福海,836400
作者简介:
基金信息:
DOI:
CLC:TM744
Published:2026
稿件说明:
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LI Longwei, LIU Qing, MA Yutao, et al. Probabilistic power flow calculation based on stochastic response surface method by stochastic reduced order model and Kriging optimizations[J]. 2026, 45(6).
DOI:
LI Longwei, LIU Qing, MA Yutao, et al. Probabilistic power flow calculation based on stochastic response surface method by stochastic reduced order model and Kriging optimizations[J]. 2026, 45(6).DOI:
Probabilistic power flow calculation based on stochastic response surface method by stochastic reduced order model and Kriging optimizations
source-load uncertainty and their mutual coupling have become increasingly prominent. Power system analysis must therefore fully account for the impact of uncertain factors on probabilistic power flow. To address the issue that traditional stochastic response surface method (SRSM) rely heavily on a large number of samples to achieve high modeling accuracy in probabilistic power flow calculations
a sample selection strategy based on the stochastic reduced order method (SROM) is proposed to extract representative samples from the full ensemble for constructing the surrogate model
thereby ensuring high computational accuracy. Furthermore
to better capture the spatial correlation and nonlinear relationships among input variables
the Kriging method is integrated with SRSM to develop an enhanced probabilistic power flow model. In addition
the global sensitivity analysis method is used to establish the sensitivity indices
calculate the sensitivity of the output variable of the probabilistic power flow to the input random variables
and quantify the impact on the operation state variables of the distribution network. Finally
numerical simulations demonstrate the feasibility and effectiveness of the proposed SROM-Kriging enhanced SRSM framework for accurate and efficient probabilistic power flow modeling.