The Application of Malthus Population Model in the Prediction of Guangzhou Population

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The Application of Malthus Population Model in the Prediction of Guangzhou Population

更新时间：2026-05-27

- The Application of Malthus Population Model in the Prediction of Guangzhou Population
- Vol. 27, Issue 3, Pages: 31-34(2010)
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- Online First：25 September 2010，
  
  Published：2010
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何春. 马尔萨斯人口模型在广州市人口预测中的应用[J]. 广东工业大学学报, 2010, 27(3): 31-34.

HE Chun. The Application of Malthus Population Model in the Prediction of Guangzhou Population[J]. 2010, 27(3): 31-34.
何春. 马尔萨斯人口模型在广州市人口预测中的应用[J]. 广东工业大学学报, 2010, 27(3): 31-34. DOI：

HE Chun. The Application of Malthus Population Model in the Prediction of Guangzhou Population[J]. 2010, 27(3): 31-34. DOI：

摘要

利用马尔萨斯人口模型对广州市的人口数据进行分析和预测，发现效果很好，说明马尔萨斯人口模型适合广州市人口，能反映出广州市人口的变化规律．利用马尔萨斯人口模型对广州市人口数据进行预测，能为广州市的决策者提供一些有益的信息．马尔萨斯人模型 xk=x0(1+r) 关键的指标是r，通过计算机搜索的方法得到较适合广州市人口模型的r值为1．54%．

Abstract

The Malthus population model is used to analyse and predict the population data of Guangzhou．It finds that Malthus population model is good for Guangzhou population data，and it can reveal the changes in the population of Guangzhou．The prediction can offer useful information for Guangzhou policymakers．The key index of Malthus population model xk= x0(1+r) is r，and it finds that the good value of r is 1．54% for Guangzhou population data，searched for by a computer．

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references

熊惠．论人El预测及其对上海市未来十年人口总数的预测[J]．Journal of Yunnan Finance＆Economics University，2003，19(1)：36-36.

董逢谷，朱荣明．统计学案例集[M]．上海：上海财经大学出版社，2002.

姜启源，谢金星，叶俊．数学模型[M]．3版．北京：高等教育出版社，2007.

文斌，庞禹．MATLAB在中国人口统计上的应用[J]．佳木斯大学学报：自然科学版，2004，22(3)：423-423．

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