After the distributed photovoltaic power source is connected to the distribution network

its output is affected by environmental factors such as sudden changes in irradiance and cloud cover

showing significant asymmetric fluctuations and thick tailed distribution characteristics

resulting in a multi-modal probability distribution of node voltage (i.e. multiple peaks in the probability distribution)

which makes it difficult to accurately calculate the risk index of voltage over-limit of the distribution network nodes and increases the risk of voltage over-limit. On this basis

a new method for regulating the output of distributed photovoltaic power generation in novel power system considering the risk of voltage over-limit is proposed. The multi-head attention neural network-factorization machine (MANN-FM) model is utilized to predict future photovoltaic output

capturing the randomness and intermittency characteristics of photovoltaic output more accurately. Based on these prediction results

the Cornish-Fisher method is used to calculate the risk index of voltage over-limit at distribution network nodes connected to distributed photovoltaic power

and to evaluate the risk of voltage over-limit. When it is predicted that the output of photovoltaic power generation will exceed the risk value of grid voltage over-limit

the output of distributed photovoltaic power generation is dynamically adjusted by implementing a comprehensive control strategy of active power and reactive power. When the risk of voltage over-limit is relatively small

only reactive power regulation is implemented. If the risk indicators continue to rise and exceed the preset threshold

the active and reactive power cooperative control mode will be activated. Through the linked control of limiting the maximum output power and enhancing reactive power compensation

the voltage of the distribution network is ensured to remain stable within the safe operation range. The experimental results show that in the typical scenario based on the 10 kV medium-voltage distribution network

the proposed method has been verified for effectiveness in the IEEE 33-node system. The voltage limit is exceeded only once

and the power fluctuation is controlled around 10 kW. It can ensure that the distribution net- work voltage operates within a safe range and is suitable for practical applications.