Research on reliability analysis method based on small-size samples of joint-operation of substation secondary equipment

CHAO Wujie; TANG Zhijun; LIANG Yi

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Research on reliability analysis method based on small-size samples of joint-operation of substation secondary equipment

更新时间：2026-04-19

- Research on reliability analysis method based on small-size samples of joint-operation of substation secondary equipment
- Vol. 63, Issue 4, (2026)
- 作者机构：
  
  1. 国网福建省电力有限公司电力科学研究院,福州,350007
  2. 福建省智能电网保护与运行控制重点实验室,福州,350007
  3. 福建亿榕信息技术有限公司,福州,350003
- 作者简介：
- 基金信息：
- DOI：
  CLC：
- Published：2026
- 稿件说明：
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CHAO Wujie, TANG Zhijun, LIANG Yi. Research on reliability analysis method based on small-size samples of joint-operation of substation secondary equipment[J]. 2026, 63(4).
DOI：

CHAO Wujie, TANG Zhijun, LIANG Yi. Research on reliability analysis method based on small-size samples of joint-operation of substation secondary equipment[J]. 2026, 63(4). DOI：

摘要

针对变电站二次设备调试过程中样本数据获取量存在客观限制，依据小样本数据难以对系统的可靠性进行分析和判断的问题，文章研究了基于Bootstrap样本扩展的变电站二次设备可靠性分析方法。文中首先论述了针对小样本问题与基于Bootstrap方法的参数分布估计方法，然后在此基础上提出了结合经验信息和样本结构变换的Bootstrap扩展样本生成方法，用于克服经典Bootstrap方法中样本数据集中和样本覆盖信息有限的问题，并在参数分布估计的基础上基于运行阈值的概率分布分析了二次设备的可靠性，最后通过仿真实验算例对所述方法的有效性进行了分析验证。

Abstract

In view of the objetive limitation of sample data acquisition during the debugging process of secondary equipment in substations. It is difficult to analyze and judge the reliability of the system based on small-size sample data. This paper studies the reliability analysis method of secondary equipment based on Bootstrap method for sample expansion. Firstly

parameter distribution estimation based on Bootstrap method is discussed. Then

a Bootstrap sample expansion method that combines empirical information and sample structure transformation is proposed to overcome the problem of concentrated sample data and limited information coverage in classic Bootstrap method. On the basis of parameter distribution estimation

the reliability of secondary equipment is analyzed based on the probability distribution of the operating threshold. Finally

the effectiveness of the proposed method is verified through simulation experiments.

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