Power consumption forecasting method based on PCA GBDT algorithm

Liu Hui

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Power consumption forecasting method based on PCA GBDT algorithm

更新时间：2026-04-08

- Power consumption forecasting method based on PCA GBDT algorithm
- Issue 2, (2026)
- 作者机构：
  
  国网江西省电力有限公司宜春供电分公司
- 作者简介：
- 基金信息：
- DOI：
  CLC：
- Published：2026
- 稿件说明：
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Liu Hui. Power consumption forecasting method based on PCA GBDT algorithm[J]. 2026, (2).
DOI：

Liu Hui. Power consumption forecasting method based on PCA GBDT algorithm[J]. 2026, (2). DOI：

摘要

在电力大数据结构复杂的背景下

研究针对传统梯度提升树算法在数据维度较高的情况下

其预测精度较低且效率低下等问题

提出一种结合主成分分析的梯度提升树算法模型

并对机器学习组件和算法参数进行了优化改进

旨在对电力数据的用电量进行精准预测

提高电力行业的工作效率。结果表明

迭代次数为5时

与支持向量机和未改进的算法相比

研究所提算法的误差分别降低了0.33%和0.63%。在居民用电中

该算法的平均绝对百分比误差与未改进的算法相比减少了18.48%。对该算法的参数进行优化后

发现研究所提优化方案的用电量误差最小

其均方误差和均方根误差分别为258.47万kwh和16.34万kwh。结果表明

研究所提算法能够对电力数据用电量进行精准预测

该算法对电力行业的发展规划和布局调整具有重要的研究意义。

Abstract

Under the background of complex power big data structure

aiming at the problems such as low prediction accuracy and low efficiency of traditional gradient lifting tree algorithm with high data dimensions

this paper proposes a gradient lifting tree algorithm model combined with principal component analysis

and optimizes and improves machine learning components and algorithm parameters

aiming at accurate prediction of power consumption of power data. Improve the efficiency of the power industry. The results show that when the number of iterations is 5

the error of the proposed algorithm is reduced by 0.33% and 0.63%

respectively

compared with support vector machine and unimproved algorithm. In residential electricity consumption

the average absolute percentage error of the algorithm is reduced by 18.48% compared with the unimproved algorithm. After optimizing the parameters of the algorithm

it is found that the power consumption error of the proposed optimization scheme is the smallest

and its mean square error and root mean square error are 2

584

700 kwh and 163

400 kwh

respectively. The results show that the proposed algorithm can accurately predict the power consumption of power data

and it has important research significance for the development planning and layout adjustment of power industry.

关键词

Keywords

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