
面向城市洪涝风险防控对高精度动态洪涝预报的现实需求,提出了基于降雨预报滚动修正和模型参数实时校正的城市洪涝动态预报方法,以实测降雨数据对实时采集的降雨预报数据进行滚动修正,并以滚动修正的降雨预报数据作为城市洪涝模型的输入,在洪涝过程中依据实测误差实时校正模型参数,驱动洪涝积水过程预报结果的动态更新,实现降雨洪涝过程中洪涝预报精度的动态提升。以郑州大学新校区为研究对象,结果表明,验证积水点的预报精度随时间动态提升,纳什效率系数由最初的不足0.6逐步提高至0.95
表明城市洪涝动态预报能有效提高预报精度,符合当下我国城市洪涝防控的现实需求。
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