Application of Computer Analog Technique to Study of Large Dam Failure Probability

陈在铁; 任青文

English Version Reader LoginJournal Login

您当前的位置：

首页 >

文章列表页 >

Application of Computer Analog Technique to Study of Large Dam Failure Probability

更新时间：2026-01-22

- Application of Computer Analog Technique to Study of Large Dam Failure Probability
- Issue 1, Pages: 92-94(2008)
- 作者机构：
  
  1. 河海大学土木工程学院,江苏,南京,210098
  2. 沙洲工学院
  3. 江苏张家港,215600
- 作者简介：
- 基金信息：
- DOI：
  CLC： TV64
- Published：2008
- 稿件说明：
移动端阅览
[1]陈在铁,任青文.计算机模拟技术在大坝失效概率研究中的应用[J].水力发电,2008(01):92-94.

陈在铁, 任青文. Application of Computer Analog Technique to Study of Large Dam Failure Probability[J]. 2008, (1): 92-94.
[1]陈在铁,任青文.计算机模拟技术在大坝失效概率研究中的应用[J].水力发电,2008(01):92-94. DOI：

陈在铁, 任青文. Application of Computer Analog Technique to Study of Large Dam Failure Probability[J]. 2008, (1): 92-94. DOI：

摘要

失效概率计算是大坝风险评价的基础。计算机模拟分析法可以克服采用一次二阶矩法计算大坝失效概率时需将状态函数线性化、非正态随机变量当量正态化以及相关随机变量独立变换的困难。在分析了大坝主要失效模式的基础上

探索了可以直接求解失效概率的计算机模拟分析方法与步骤

结合大坝剪滑垮坝模式

研究了该模式状态函数及随机变量的分布规律

推导了产生皮尔逊Ⅲ型分布、极值Ⅰ型分布、对数正态分布随机变量随机数的公式

利用编制程序对大坝剪滑失效模式进行了多次模拟

对模拟结果统计分析得到了剪滑失效概率的均值、标准差及95%的置信区间。

Abstract

Failure probability calculation is what the large dam risk evaluation is based on.The computer simulation method can solve the difficulty in linearizing the state function

normalizing the nonnormal random variable equivalent and transforming the relevant random variables during the calculation of dam failure probability by means of First Order Second Moment method.On the basis of the analysis of the major dam failure modes

a probe is made into the computer simulation method and its procedures for direct calculation of the failure probability;while considering the dam shear-slipping collapse mode

a study is made of the state function and the distribution regularities of the random variables under this mode and the formula is deduced out for generating the random numbers for random variables of Pierson III Distribution

Extreme-value I Distribution and Logarithmic Normal Distribution;by programming

repeated simulations are conducted to the dam shear-slipping failure mode and through statistics and analysis of the results of the simulation

the mean value

the standard deviation and a 95% confidence interval of the shear-slipping failure probability are obtained.

关键词

Keywords

references

高拱坝剪滑失效概率研究 [J]. 陈在铁. 南京理工大学学报(自然科学版) . 2007(02)

高拱坝安全度评价研究 [J]. 陈在铁,任青文. 南京理工大学学报(自然科学版) . 2005(05)

Research on High Arch Dam Failure Probability Based on Failure Mode [J] . Chen Zai Tie,Ren Qing Wen. Key Engineering Materials . 2007 (348)

Views

156

下载量

CSCD

Alert me when the article has been cited

提交

Tools

Publicity Resources

Comprehensive Methodology for Assessing Anti-sliding Safety of Dam/Foundation Interfaces in Gravity Dams

Risk Assessment of Dam Overtopping

Reliability Analysis of Stability for Unsaturated Loess Slopes Under the Condition of Rainfall Infiltration

Reliability Analysis of Stability for Braced Structures of Excavation

Study on Safety Reliability Time-varying Model of Gravity Dam

Related Author

CHU Dongdong

LU Mingzhi

MA Fuheng

HU Jiang

Long Shaojiang

Li Qingfu

Huang Nuan2

Wang Jianhua1

Related Institution

State Key Laboratory of Hydrology-Water Resources and Hydraulic Engineering,Nanjing Hydraulic Research Institute

Water Resources Research Institute of Jiangsu Province

School of Environment and Water Conservancy,Zhengzhou University

郑州大学环境与水利学院河南郑州450002

Hehai Univerisity

AI问答

⁰