Spatiotemporal Evolution Law and Attribution of Dry Season Runoff in the Middle Reaches of Xijiang River

ZHU Yingjie; ZHANG Lijie

doi:null

English Version Reader LoginJournal Login

您当前的位置：

首页 >

文章列表页 >

Spatiotemporal Evolution Law and Attribution of Dry Season Runoff in the Middle Reaches of Xijiang River

更新时间：2026-01-06

- Spatiotemporal Evolution Law and Attribution of Dry Season Runoff in the Middle Reaches of Xijiang River
- PEARL RIVER Pages: 1-16(2026)
- 作者机构：
  
  1.梧州水文中心，广西梧州 543002
  2.梧州学院，广西梧州 543002
- 作者简介：
- 基金信息：
- DOI：
  CLC：
- Received：13 August 2025，
  
  Revised：2025-10-14，
  
  Accepted：20 October 2025，
  
  Published Online：06 January 2026，
- 稿件说明：
移动端阅览
朱颖洁，张立杰.西江中游干支流枯季径流量时空演变规律及归因［J］.人民珠江，DOI：10.3969/j.issn.1001-9235.XXXX.XX.001.

ZHU Yingjie,ZHANG Lijie.Spatiotemporal Evolution Law and Attribution of Dry Season Runoff in the Middle Reaches of Xijiang River[J].PEARL RIVER,
朱颖洁，张立杰.西江中游干支流枯季径流量时空演变规律及归因［J］.人民珠江，DOI：10.3969/j.issn.1001-9235.XXXX.XX.001. DOI：

ZHU Yingjie,ZHANG Lijie.Spatiotemporal Evolution Law and Attribution of Dry Season Runoff in the Middle Reaches of Xijiang River[J].PEARL RIVER, DOI：10.3969/j.issn.1001-9235...001.

摘要

枯季是西江流域的关键水资源调节期，开展西江中游干支流枯季径流量规律研究，可为流域各级党委政府和相关部门决策提供参考。运用Mann-Kendall秩次相关检验、有序聚类分析法、Morlet小波分析法等分析枯季径流量的趋势、突变和周期成分；利用Kriging插值法分析其空间分布特征；利用累积量斜率变化率法分析降雨量和人类活动对其影响。结果表明：西江中游干支流枯季径流量呈不显著的上升趋势，没有发生显著突变；支流桂江和蒙江的枯季径流量事件容易发生异常现象；降水的变化并不是引起西江支流蒙江、桂江和西江干流枯季径流量变化的主要原因。

Abstract

The dry season is a critical period for water resource regulation in the Xijiang River Basin. Therefore

research on the runoff patterns of the main and tributary rivers in the middle reaches of the Xijiang River during the dry season can provide reference for decision-making by party committees

governments

and relevant departments at all levels in the basin. In this study

the trends

mutations

and periodic components of dry season runoff are explored using the Mann Kendall rank correlation test

ordered clustering analysis

Morlet wavelet analysis

and other methods. The spatial distribution characteristics are analyzed by the Kriging interpolation method. The effects of precipitation and human activities on the runoff are studied with the cumulative slope change rate method. The results showed that the dry season runoff of the main and tributary streams in the middle reaches of the Xijiang River shows an insignificant upward trend. There is no significant mutation in the dry season runoff series at Taiping Station

Jinji Station

Pingle Station

and Wuzhou Station. The dry season runoff series mainly exhibits cycles of about 3 years

6–7 years

15–19 years

and 32–36 years. The dry season runoff variation of main and tributary streams is uneven and asynchronous. The dry season runoff in the Xijiang River basin increased from the 1960s to the 1980s

decreased in the 1990s

and continued to decrease in the 2000s for tributary streams while starting to increase for the main stream

but saw a significant increase again in the 2010s. During the same period

the dry season runoff of different rivers also varied

with the main stream of the Xijiang River having the highest dry season runoff

the tributary Guijiang River having the highest dry season runoff

and the Mengjiang River having the lowest. The dry season runoff events of the tributary Guijiang and Mengjiang Rivers are prone to anomalies

while the dispersion coefficient of dry season runoff at the Wuzhou station on the main stream is in the low value range. The dry season runoff in the middle reaches of the Xijiang River shows an insignificant decreasing trend

with the decreasing trend gradually diminishing from the main stream to the tributary Beiliu River. The increased regulation of water conservancy projects and the implementation of soil and water conservation measures since the 21st century are the main reasons for the changes in dry season runoff in the tributaries of the Xijiang River

including the Mengjiang River and the Guijiang River

as well as the main stream of the Xijiang River. However

precipitation is an important factor contributing to the changes in dry season runoff in the Beiliu River. The analysis results can provide scientific and reliable technological support for the scientific management

development

protection

and administration of the Xijiang River basin

and offer references for decision-making by party committees

governments

and relevant departments at all levels in the basin.

关键词

Keywords

references

THARUKA S ， GUNAWARDHANA L . Investigating Future Low-Flow Variations Under Changing Climate Conditions in Padiyathalawa River Basin ［J］. 2024 Moratuwa Engineering Research Conference （MERCon）， 2024 ： 242 - 247 .

BENTON J R ， DOCTOR D H . Dynamic Baseflow Storage Estimates and the Role of Topography， Geology and Evapotranspiration on Streamflow Recession Characteristics in the Neversink Reservoir Watershed， New York ［J］. Hydrological Processes ， 2025 ， 39 （ 3 ）. DOI： 10.1002/hyp.70106 http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/hyp.70106

Ciurlu D ， Borcan M ， Coiciu I ， et al . SPATIOTEMPORAL ANALYSIS OF COLD-SEASON MINIMUM RUNOFF IN THE ARGE-VEDEA RIVER BASIN "［J］. Air & Water Components of the Environment / Aerul si Apa Componente ale Mediului ， 2025 ： 43 - 56 .

朱颖洁 . 西江梧州站枯季径流变化的小波多尺度分析［J］. 桂林理工大学学报， 2016 ， 36 （ 4 ）： 688 - 692 .

ZHU Y J . Wavelet multi-scale analysis of dry season runoff changes of Wuzhou station in Xijiang River ［J］. Journal of Guilin University of Technology ， 2016 ， 36 （ 4 ）： 688 – 692 （in Chinese） .

舒章康，张建云，金君良，等 . 1961—2018年中国主要江河枯季径流演变特征与成因［J］. 气候变化研究进展， 2021 ， 17 （ 3 ）： 340 - 351 .

SHU Z K ， ZHANG J Y ， JIN J L ， et al . Evolution characters and causes of the dry season runoff for the major rivers in China during 1961–2018 ［J］. Climate Change Research ， 2021 ， 17 （ 3 ）： 340 – 351 （in Chinese） .

江善虎，任明明，章二子，等 . 基于非平稳GEV模型的黄河源区枯季径流演变特征分析［J］. 河海大学学报：自然科学版， 2023 ， 51 （ 2 ）： 1 - 7，63 .

Jiang Shanhu ， Ren Mingming ， Zhang Erzi ， et al . Analysis of dry season runoff evolution characteristics in the source region of the Yellow River based on non-stationary GEV model ［J］. Journal of Hohai University： Natural Science Edition ， 2023 ， 51 （ 2 ）： 1 - 7，63 （in chinese） .

熊斌，卓云强，许崇育，等 . 1956—2022年鄱阳湖枯水情势演变及驱动机制分析［J］. 水利学报， 2024 ， 55 （ 3 ）： 313 - 324 .

Xiong Bin ， Zhuo Yunqiang ， Xu Chongyu ， et al . Analysis on the evolution and driving mechanism of low water situation in Poyang Lake from 1956 to 2022 ［J］. Journal of Hydraulic Engineering ， 2024 ， 55 （ 3 ）： 313 - 324 （in chinese） .

何玉芬，杨汉波，董宁澎，等 . 分布式水文模型与自回归误差校正相结合的低枯流量预报研究［J］. 水利学报， 2024 ， 55 （ 12 ）： 1539 - 1547 .

He Yufen ， Yang Hanbo ， Dong Ningpeng ， et al . Research on low-flow forecasting based on the combination of distributed hydrological model and autoregressive error correction ［J］. Journal of Hydraulic Engineering ， 2024 ， 55 （ 12 ）： 1539 - 1547 （in chinese） .

尹思危，王跃峰，周琨鸿，等 . 三峡库区小流域景观格局变化洪枯径流效应及归因分析［J］. 生态学报， 2024 ， 44 （ 18 ）： 7962 - 7976 .

Yi n Siwei ， Wang Yuefeng ， Zhou Kunhong ， et al . Effect of landscape pattern change on flood and dry runoff in small watersheds in the Three Gorges Reservoir area and its attribution analysis ［J］. Acta Ecologica Sinica ， 2024 ， 44 （ 18 ）： 7962 - 7976

（in chinese） .

Marius-Victor Birsan ， Peter Molnar ， Paolo Burlando ， et al . Streamfow trends in Switzerland.Journal of Hydrology ［J］， 314 （ 2005 ）： 312 - 329 .

丁晶，邓育仁．随机水文学［M］．四川：成都科技大学出版社，l 988 .

Ding Jing ， Deng Yuren . Stochastic Hydrology ［M］. Sichuan ： Chengdu University of Science and Technology Press ， 1988 （in chinese） .

陈吉星，颜志庆，陈祥宇．南四湖流域降水与天然径流量变化特征分析［J］. 水文， 2022 ， 42 （ 2 ）： 80 - 84 .

Chen Jixing ， Yan Zhiqing ， Chen Xiangyu . Analysis on the Variation Characteristics of Precipitation and Natural Runoff in the Nansi Lake Basin ［J］. Hydrology ， 2022 ， 42 （ 2 ）： 80 - 84 （in chinese） .

张学真，等 . 灞河出山径流序列变化的小波分析.水资源保护［J］. 2006 ， 22 （ 3 ）： 12 - 15 .

Zhang Xuezhen ， et al . Wavelet analysis of runoff series variation in Bahe River after leaving the mountains. Water Resources Protection ［J］. 2006 ， 22 （ 3 ）： 12 - 15 （in chinese） .

Afifi A.A. ， Azen S.P. . Statistical analysis， a computer oriented approach ［J］. New York ： Academic press ， Harcour Brace jovanonich publishers ， 1972 ， 366 .

符综斌，王强 . 气候突变的定义和检测方法.大气科学［J］， 1992 ， 16 （ 4 ）： 482 - 493 .

Fu Zongbin ， Wang Qiang . Definition and Detection Methods of Climate Abrupt Change. Atmospheric Sciences ［J］， 1992 ， 16 （ 4 ）： 482 - 493 （in chinese） .

郭文献，李越，张陵，等 . 近60年长江中游宜昌站水沙变化与驱动因素分析［J］. 水文， 2019 ， 39 （ 6 ）： 58，69 - 73 .

Guo Wenxian ， Li Yue ， Zhang Ling ， et al . Analysis of Water and Sediment Variations and Driving Forces at Yichang Station in the Middle Reaches of the Yangtze River over the Past 60 Years ［J］. Hydrology ， 2019 ， 39 （ 6 ）： 58， 69 - 73 （in chinese） .

刘贤赵，张安定，李嘉竹 . 地理学数学方法［M］. 科学出版社， 2009 .

Liu Xianzhao ， Zhang Anding ， Li Jiazhu . Mathematical Methods in Geography ［M］. Science Press ， 2009 （in chinese） .

尹继尧，朱元清，宋治平，等． Morlet小波显著性检验和精度分析在地磁场和地震活动性周期分析中的应用，地震学报［J］， 2011 ， 33 （ 5 ）： 663 - 671 .

Yin Jiyao ， Zhu Yuanqing ， Song Zhiping ， et al . Application of Morlet Wavelet Significance Test and Precision Analysis in the Periodic Analysis of Geomagnetic Field and Seismic Activity. Acta Seismologica Sinica ［J］， 2011 ， 33 （ 5 ）： 663 - 671 （in chinese） .

朱颖洁 . Kriging插值法在梧州季降雨空间分析中的应用 .广西水利水电［J］， 2016 ，（ 2 ）： 10 - 16 .

Zhu Yingjie . Application of Kriging Interpolation Method in Spatial Analysis of Seasonal Rainfall in Wuzhou. Guangxi Water Conservancy and Hydropower ［J］， 2016 ，（ 2 ）： 10 - 16 （in chinese） .

王随继，闫云霞，颜明，等 . 皇甫川流域降水和人类活动对径流量变化的贡献率分析［J］. 地理学报， 2012 ， 67 （ 3 ）： 388 - 397 .

Wang Suiji ， Yan Yunxia ， Yan Ming ， et al . Analysis of the contribution rates of precipitation and human activities to runoff variation in the Huangfuchuan watershed ［J］. Acta Geographica Sinica ， 2012 ， 67 （ 3 ）： 388 - 397 （in chinese） .

朱颖洁，张立杰 . 蒙江流域近60年水沙演变特征研究［J］．江西水利科技， 2024 ， 50 （ 2 ）： 118 - 124 ．

Zhu Yingjie ， Zhang Lijie . Study on the Evolution Characteristics of Water and Sediment in the Mengjiang River Basin over the Past 60 Years ［J］. Jiangxi Water Conservancy and Hydropower Technology ， 2024 ， 50 （ 2 ）： 118 - 124 （in chinese） .

Views

下载量

CSCD

Alert me when the article has been cited

提交

Tools

Publicity Resources

Study on Flood Season Staging of Different Stationsin Xijiang River Based on Fuzzy Set Analysis

Characteristic Analysis of Annual Sediment Transport Modulus of Xijiang River Basin in Guangxi over Last 60 Years

Research on Medium and Long-Term Runoff Forecast of Xijiang River in Dry Season Based on Statistical Model

Related Author

WANG Yuhu

WANG Baohua

FAN Hongxia

HOU Guibing

LI Yuanyuan

ZHU Yingjie

LAN Yuxi

ZHANG Yin

Related Institution

China Water Resources Pearl River Planning Surveying & Designing Co., Ltd.

Pearl River Basin Scheduling Research Center of Flood Control and Drought Relief Headquarters

Hydrology and Water Resources Bureau of Pearl River Water Resources Commission of the Ministry of Water Resources

Longtan Hydropower Plant of Longtan Hydropower Development Co.,Ltd

AI问答

⁰