Analysis of Extreme Climate Characteristics and Risks of

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Analysis of Extreme Climate Characteristics and Risks of

更新时间：2025-12-18

- Analysis of Extreme Climate Characteristics and Risks of
- Issue 9, (2025)
- 作者机构：
  
  宁夏回族自治区气象服务中心
- 作者简介：
- 基金信息：
- DOI：
  CLC：
- Published：2025
- 稿件说明：
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wu wanli. Analysis of Extreme Climate Characteristics and Risks of[J]. 2025, (9).
DOI：

wu wanli. Analysis of Extreme Climate Characteristics and Risks of[J]. 2025, (9). DOI：

摘要

在全球气候变暖的大背景下，极端气候风险已成为了影响新型电力系统安全稳定运行的重要变量。本文基于宁夏新能源集中区国家级气象站的地面观测数据，分析了风能、太阳能资源的极端气候风险特征。结果表明，“无风无光”事件发生频率最高，且在连阴雨、静稳天气下影响最为显著，风电与光伏出力可分别降至平均水平的20%与30%，对电网运行构成突出风险。该事件在秋冬季节高发，典型持续时间为36－40小时，未来随小风与降水日数增加，其发生频次可能进一步上升。为应对上述挑战，应充分发挥“有风无光”与“有光无风”情景中所体现的风光互补特性，通过优化储能配置、加强区域电网互联、提升气象监测预警能力，增强新型电力系统在极端气象条件下的稳定性和可靠性。

Abstract

Under the backdrop of global warming

extreme climate risks have become a significant variable affecting the safe and stable operation of the new power system. Based on the ground observation data from the national meteorological station in the concentrated area of new energy in Ningxia

this paper analyzes the extreme climate risk characteristics of wind and solar energy resources. The results show that the "no wind and no light" event occurs most frequently and has the most significant impact during continuous rainy and stable weather conditions

with wind power and photovoltaic output dropping to 20% and 30% of the average level respectively

posing a prominent risk to grid operation. This event is highly prevalent in autumn and winter

with a typical duration of 36 to 40 hours. In the future

with the increase in the number of days with light wind and precipitation

its occurrence frequency may further rise. To address these challenges

it is necessary to fully leverage the complementary characteristics of wind and solar energy in the "wind but no light" and "light but no wind" scenarios

and enhance the stability and reliability of the new power system under extreme weather conditions by optimizing energy storage configuration

strengthening regional power grid interconnection

and improving meteorological monitoring and early warning capabilities.

关键词

Keywords

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