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Analysis of Power Load Correlation with Climatic Factors in Central China
- Issue 6, (2025)
- 作者机构：
1. 国家电网有限公司华中分部
2. 湖北省电力有限公司经济技术研究院
- 作者简介：
- 基金信息：
DOI：
CLC：-
Published：2025
- 稿件说明：
移动端阅览
Zhang Xiang, Zhang Sheng, Li HuiHui, et al. Analysis of Power Load Correlation with Climatic Factors in Central China[J]. 2025, (6).
摘要
针对极端气象事件频发给华中电网负荷预测带来的挑战，该文依据2024—2025年迎峰度夏（6—9月）以及迎峰度冬（11月—次年2月）期间华中区域（河南、湖北、湖南、江西）电力负荷与气象数据，借助皮尔逊相关系数模型，对电力负荷与多维度气温指标的关联性展开系统分析。研究结果表明实际平均气温与最大负荷的相关性最高（r=0.900），优于体感温度。在此基础上提出累积均温（三日加权平均气温）概念，提升了华中四省气温与负荷的相关性。基于K-means聚类算法，得出华中区域空调负荷占比高达46.7%，采暖负荷占比可达24.9%。该研究成果为提升短期负荷预测以及优化电网调度提供了重要理论依据。
Abstract
Addressing challenges of extreme weather events to load forecasting in Central China，this study investigates the correlation between electricity load and multi-dimensional temperature indicators in Central China
including Henan
Hubei
Hunan
and Jiangxi
during peak periods:summer (June-September 2024-2025) and winter (November-February 2024-2025).Based on Pearson Correlation Coefficient modeling
this study systematically analyzes the relationship between load and meteorological data.It reveals that the actual mean temperature demonstrates the strongest correlation with peak load (regional r = 0.900)
outperforming the apparent temperature.The proposed?Cumulative Mean Temperature (defined as the three-day weighted average temperature) significantly enhances temperature-load correlation across Central China and its four constituent provinces. As demonstrated by K-means clustering analysis
the air-conditioning load proportion reaches 46.7% in summer peak period and the heating load proportion reaches 24.9% in winter peak period in Central China.These results provide critical theoretical underpinnings for optimizing short-term load forecasting and grid dispatch operations under climate volatility.
关键词
Keywords
references
张贲,史沛然,蒋超.气象因素对京津唐电网夏季负荷特性影响分析[J].电力自动化设备,2013,12,140-144ZHANG BenSHI PeiranJIANG Chao.Impact of meteorological factors on summer load characteristics of Beijing-Tianjin-Tangshan Power Grid[J].Electric Power Automation Equipment,2013,12,140-144
刘继东,韩学山,楚成博,等.考虑非气象因素的电网夏季降温负荷研究[J].电力自动化设备,2013,02,40-46LIU Jidong,HAN Xueshan,CHU Chengbo,etal.Cooling load of summer grid considering non-meteorological factors[J].Electric Power Automation Equipment,2013,02,40-46
葛罗,冯煊,胡凯,等.新型电力系统下空调负荷聚合建模及可调控潜力评估[J].浙江电力,2023,42(04),45-53GE Luo,FENG Xuan,HU Kai,etal.Air conditioning load aggregation modeling and the schedulable potential evaluation in the context of new-type power system[J].Zhejiang Electric Power,2023,42(04),45-53
彭利鸿,别芳玫,徐玮,等.2023“迎峰度冬”湖北电网采暖用电与气温相关性分析[J].电力大数据,2025,28(01),40-48PENG Lihong,BIE Fangmei,XU Wei,etal.Correlation Analysis of Hubei Power Grid Heating Electricity Consumption and Temperature During 2023 “Peak Winter”[J].Power System and Big Data,2025,28(01),40-48
贺春光.夏季电网最大负荷与气温的相关性分析[J].河北电力技术,2011,30(5),15-17He Chunguang.Correlation Analysis on System Peak Load and Temperature[J].Hebei Electric Power,2011,30(5),15-17
范进进,尹炤寅,姜杰,等.2007至2013年黄石市夏季电网气象敏感负荷预测的研究[A].第33届中国气象学会年会S13 “互联网+”与气象服务——第六届气象服务发展论坛Fan Jinjin,Yin Zhaoyan, Jiang jie,ecal.A Study on the Summer Weather-Sensitive Power Load Rateusing Sensible Temperature in Huangshi City [A].The 33rd Annual Meeting of Chinese Meteorological Society · S13 "Internet Plus" and Meteorological Services——The 6th Meteorological Service Development Forum
尹炤寅,范进进,陈幼姣,等.体感温度对夏季气象负荷率变化的影响研究-以湖北省黄石市为例[J].气象,2017,05,620-627YIN Zhaoyin,FAN Jinjin,CHEN Youjiao,etc.Impact of Sensible Temperature on Summer Weather-Sensitive Power Load Rate in Huangshi City[J].Meteorological Monthly,2017,05,620-627
张祥,肖达强,吕东晓.体感温度在电网负荷预计工作中的修正作用[J].华中电力,2003,03,37-39ZHANG Xiang,XIAO Da-qiang,LU Dong-xiao.Modification of Power System Load Forcasting by Feeling Temperature.Central China Electric Power,2003,03,37-39
谢家安.基于体感温度的电力系统负荷分类及负荷预测[J].电网与清洁能源,2012,28(8),24-28XIE Jia-an.Load Classification and Load Forecasting of Power System Based on Apparent Temperature[J].Power System and Clean Energy,2012,28(8),24-28
王珂, 姚建国, 姚良忠, 等. 电力柔性负荷调度研究综述[J]. 电力系统自动化, 2014, 38(20): 127-135.
王莉琳, 张世荣, 董明齐, 等. 经济运行“新常态”下湖北电力需求影响因素及因应策略研究[J]. 湖北电力, 2016, 40(03): 23-28.
别芳玫, 陈梦, 童雅芳, 等. 冬季气温对负荷及用电量的影响分析研究[J].湖北电力,2019,43(02): 42-49BIE Fangmei, CHEN Meng, TONG Yafang, etal. Analysis of influence of wintertemperature on load????????????? and????????????? electricity Consumption? [J]. Hubei Electric Power, 2019, 43(02): 42-49.
黎灿兵,杨朋,刘玮,等.短期负荷预测中考虑夏季气温累积效应的方法[J].电力系统自动化,2009,33(9),96-99LI Canbing1,YANG Peng1,LIU Wei,etal.An Analysis of Accumulative Effect of Temperature in Short-term Load Forecasting[J].Automation of Electric Power Systems, 2009,33(9),96-99
童雅芳, 丁珩, 黄泽琦, 等.基于温度累积效应的湖北省负荷及电量对气温的敏感性分析[J].湖北电力, 2015, 39(10): 29-32.
章姝俊, 陆海清, 陈佳玺,等.基于多因素相关性分析的气温敏感负荷预测[J].浙江电力,2023,42(09):27-35.
张贲,史沛然,蒋超.气象因素对京津唐电网夏季负荷特性影响分析[J].电力自动化设备,2013,12,140-144ZHANG BenSHI PeiranJIANG Chao.Impact of meteorological factors on summer load characteristics of Beijing-Tianjin-Tangshan Power Grid[J].Electric Power Automation Equipment,2013,12,140-144
刘继东,韩学山,楚成博,等.考虑非气象因素的电网夏季降温负荷研究[J].电力自动化设备,2013,02,40-46LIU Jidong,HAN Xueshan,CHU Chengbo,etal.Cooling load of summer grid considering non-meteorological factors[J].Electric Power Automation Equipment,2013,02,40-46
葛罗,冯煊,胡凯,等.新型电力系统下空调负荷聚合建模及可调控潜力评估[J].浙江电力,2023,42(04),45-53GE Luo,FENG Xuan,HU Kai,etal.Air conditioning load aggregation modeling and the schedulable potential evaluation in the context of new-type power system[J].Zhejiang Electric Power,2023,42(04),45-53
彭利鸿,别芳玫,徐玮,等.2023“迎峰度冬”湖北电网采暖用电与气温相关性分析[J].电力大数据,2025,28(01),40-48PENG Lihong,BIE Fangmei,XU Wei,etal.Correlation Analysis of Hubei Power Grid Heating Electricity Consumption and Temperature During 2023 “Peak Winter”[J].Power System and Big Data,2025,28(01),40-48
贺春光.夏季电网最大负荷与气温的相关性分析[J].河北电力技术,2011,30(5),15-17He Chunguang.Correlation Analysis on System Peak Load and Temperature[J].Hebei Electric Power,2011,30(5),15-17
范进进,尹炤寅,姜杰,等.2007至2013年黄石市夏季电网气象敏感负荷预测的研究[A].第33届中国气象学会年会S13 “互联网+”与气象服务——第六届气象服务发展论坛Fan Jinjin,Yin Zhaoyan, Jiang jie,ecal.A Study on the Summer Weather-Sensitive Power Load Rateusing Sensible Temperature in Huangshi City [A].The 33rd Annual Meeting of Chinese Meteorological Society · S13 "Internet Plus" and Meteorological Services——The 6th Meteorological Service Development Forum
尹炤寅,范进进,陈幼姣,等.体感温度对夏季气象负荷率变化的影响研究-以湖北省黄石市为例[J].气象,2017,05,620-627YIN Zhaoyin,FAN Jinjin,CHEN Youjiao,etc.Impact of Sensible Temperature on Summer Weather-Sensitive Power Load Rate in Huangshi City[J].Meteorological Monthly,2017,05,620-627
张祥,肖达强,吕东晓.体感温度在电网负荷预计工作中的修正作用[J].华中电力,2003,03,37-39ZHANG Xiang,XIAO Da-qiang,LU Dong-xiao.Modification of Power System Load Forcasting by Feeling Temperature.Central China Electric Power,2003,03,37-39
谢家安.基于体感温度的电力系统负荷分类及负荷预测[J].电网与清洁能源,2012,28(8),24-28XIE Jia-an.Load Classification and Load Forecasting of Power System Based on Apparent Temperature[J].Power System and Clean Energy,2012,28(8),24-28
王珂, 姚建国, 姚良忠, 等. 电力柔性负荷调度研究综述[J]. 电力系统自动化, 2014, 38(20): 127-135.
王莉琳, 张世荣, 董明齐, 等. 经济运行“新常态”下湖北电力需求影响因素及因应策略研究[J]. 湖北电力, 2016, 40(03): 23-28.
别芳玫, 陈梦, 童雅芳, 等. 冬季气温对负荷及用电量的影响分析研究[J].湖北电力,2019,43(02): 42-49BIE Fangmei, CHEN Meng, TONG Yafang, etal. Analysis of influence of wintertemperature on load????????????? and????????????? electricity Consumption? [J]. Hubei Electric Power, 2019, 43(02): 42-49.
黎灿兵,杨朋,刘玮,等.短期负荷预测中考虑夏季气温累积效应的方法[J].电力系统自动化,2009,33(9),96-99LI Canbing1,YANG Peng1,LIU Wei,etal.An Analysis of Accumulative Effect of Temperature in Short-term Load Forecasting[J].Automation of Electric Power Systems, 2009,33(9),96-99
童雅芳, 丁珩, 黄泽琦, 等.基于温度累积效应的湖北省负荷及电量对气温的敏感性分析[J].湖北电力, 2015, 39(10): 29-32.
章姝俊, 陆海清, 陈佳玺,等.基于多因素相关性分析的气温敏感负荷预测[J].浙江电力,2023,42(09):27-35.
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