Short-term photovoltaic power prediction combination model considering seasonal characteristic and data window
|更新时间:2025-10-16
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Short-term photovoltaic power prediction combination model considering seasonal characteristic and data window
Vol. 44, Issue 1, Pages: 183-192(2025)
作者机构:
贵州大学电气工程学院,贵州,贵阳,550025
作者简介:
基金信息:
DOI:
CLC:TM615
Published:2025
稿件说明:
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ZHANG Jing. Short-term photovoltaic power prediction combination model considering seasonal characteristic and data window[J]. 2025, 44(1): 183-192.
DOI:
ZHANG Jing. Short-term photovoltaic power prediction combination model considering seasonal characteristic and data window[J]. 2025, 44(1): 183-192.DOI:
Short-term photovoltaic power prediction combination model considering seasonal characteristic and data window
摘要
光伏功率的间歇性和随机性因季节变化呈现出不同的特点,考虑季节特性对提高光伏功率预测精度具有重要意义。因此,文中提出一种考虑季节特性和数据窗口的短期光伏功率预测组合模型。首先,通过皮尔逊相关系数法确定对光伏功率贡献度高的气象因素,降低预测模型的输入特征维数。其次,对比不同季节下不同模型的光伏功率预测精度,选择光伏功率预测误差最小且相关性最低的2个模型构建组合模型,即门控循环单元(gated recurrent unit
The intermittency and randomness of photovoltaic power present different characteristics due to seasonal variations
so it is important to consider seasonal characteristics to improve the accuracy of photovoltaic power prediction. Therefore
a short-term photovoltaic power prediction combination model considering seasonal characteristic and data window is proposed in the paper. Firstly
the Pearson correlation coefficient method is adopted to determine suitable meteorological factors with high contribution to photovoltaic power and reduce the input feature dimensions of the prediction model. Secondly
the prediction error of different photovoltaic power models is compared
and the two models with the lowest photovoltaic power prediction error and the lowest correlation are selected to construct the combination model
i.e.
gated recurrent unit (GRU) model and extreme gradient boosting (XGboost) model. Thirdly
the effects of different input windows in the historical meteorological data on the prediction accuracy of GRU-XGboost model are analyzed to determine the optimal data window. Finally
on this basis
GRU and XGboost predict the photovoltaic power respectively. The final prediction is obtained by weighted combination of the two predictions. Simulation results show that the proposed model has stronger adaptability and higher prediction accuracy than other models.