Dynamic Process Risk Assessment Method for Variable Grid Clusters in the New Power System

Liang Ling; Su Hua-ying; Song Yao; Guo Ming; Zhang Yun-ju

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Dynamic Process Risk Assessment Method for Variable Grid Clusters in the New Power System

更新时间：2025-09-25

- Dynamic Process Risk Assessment Method for Variable Grid Clusters in the New Power System
- Issue 5, (2025)
- 作者机构：
  
  1. 贵州电网公司电力调度控制中心
  2. 贵州电网公司贵安供电局
  3. 贵州电网公司安顺供电局
- 作者简介：
- 基金信息：
- DOI：
  CLC：
- Published：2025
- 稿件说明：
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Liang Ling, Su Hua-ying, Song Yao, et al. Dynamic Process Risk Assessment Method for Variable Grid Clusters in the New Power System[J]. 2025, (5).
DOI：

Liang Ling, Su Hua-ying, Song Yao, et al. Dynamic Process Risk Assessment Method for Variable Grid Clusters in the New Power System[J]. 2025, (5). DOI：

摘要

为应对高比例可再生能源接入所引发的新型电力系统运行不确定性强、系统复杂度高等问题

保障系统安全稳定运行

本文提出一种基于动态可变网格群的电力系统动态风险评估方法。该方法以电能质量为核心指标

构建涵盖数据预处理、特征分析、预测建模与风险预警的完整评估框架

并引入AHP-TOPSIS算法对风险等级进行量化分析

实现对关键风险区域的准确识别。通过设计动态可变网格群结构

增强了系统对复杂运行环境的适应能力

有效提升了评估模型在动态条件下的灵敏度与精度。案例分析结果表明

该方法能准确识别新型电力系统中的潜在风险区域

评估结果与实际运行情况高度匹配

验证了方法的有效性和可行性。研究结果为提升新型电力系统的安全性、稳定性及运行效率提供了可靠的理论依据与实践参考

对后续复杂电力系统的动态风险管理具有重要指导意义。

Abstract

To address the challenges of high uncertainty and operational complexity brought by the integration of a high proportion of renewable energy in new-type power systems

and to ensure safe and stable operation

this paper proposes a dynamic risk assessment method based on a variable grid group structure. Centered on power quality as the core indicator

the method establishes a comprehensive risk assessment framework encompassing data preprocessing

feature analysis

predictive modeling

and risk warning. By integrating the AHP-TOPSIS algorithm

it quantifies risk levels and accurately identifies key risk areas. The introduction of the dynamic variable grid group structure enhances the system"s adaptability to complex operational environments and significantly improves the sensitivity and accuracy of risk assessment under dynamic conditions. Case studies demonstrate that the proposed method can effectively identify potential risk regions within new-type power systems

with assessment results closely matching actual operating conditions

thereby validating its effectiveness and feasibility. The findings provide a solid theoretical foundation and practical reference for improving the safety

stability

and operational efficiency of new-type power systems

offering valuable guidance for dynamic risk management in complex power networks.

关键词

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references

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胡博,谢开贵,邵常政,等.双碳目标下新型电力系统风险评述:特征?指标及评估方法[J].电力系统自动化,2023,47(05):1-15.

郭创新,刘祝平,冯斌,等.新型电力系统风险评估研究现状及展望[J].高电压技术,2022,48(09):3394-3404.

Chen J N, Wu Z J, Wang Y T, et al. Lightning disaster-based comprehensive reliability assessment model for transmission grid[J]. High Voltage Apparatus, 2020, 56(2): 170-175.

刘海鹏,杨晓静,陆涛,等.考虑分布式新能源的电网运行风险评估指标体系构建方法[J].浙江电力,2024,43(12):1-14.

祝宇翔,张俊芳,程维杰,等.基于需求侧管理的城市电网风险评估[J].现代电力,2020,37(02):133-138.

李勇杰,席小娟,李旭阳,等.新型电力系统下电网技改配置鲁棒优化研究[J].智慧电力,2025,53(02):65-72.

盛戈皞, 钱勇, 罗林根, 等. 面向新型电力系统的电力设备运行维护关键技术及其应用展望[J]. 高电压技术, 2021, 47(9): 3072-3084.

林顺富,汤继开,汤波,等.典型电能质量稳态指标预测模型研究[J].电网技术,2018,42(02):614-620.

Reguieg Z, Bouyakoub I, Mehedi F. Integrated optimization of power quality and energy management in a photovoltaic-battery microgrid[J]. Renewable Energy, 2025, 241: 122358.

Arslan A E, Arslan O, Kandemir S Y. AHP–TOPSIS hybrid decision-making analysis: Simav integrated system case study[J]. Journal of Thermal Analysis and Calorimetry, 2021, 145(3): 1191-1202.

曾谆,赵贇,张剑萍,等.基于AHP赋权TOPSIS法的非奈利酮合理用药评价[J].实用药物与临床,2025,28(02):81-87.

Hu W, Hu B, Li Y, et al. Anomaly detection for drilling tools based on operating mode recognition and interval-augmented Mahalanobis distance[J]. Control Engineering Practice, 2025, 156: 106212.

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