Reliability Evaluation of Photovoltaic Power Plant Based on Markov Chain Monte Carlo Method

ZHU Xiaorong; WANG Yuning; JIN Huimin; HUANG Jingsheng

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Reliability Evaluation of Photovoltaic Power Plant Based on Markov Chain Monte Carlo Method

更新时间：2025-12-08

- Reliability Evaluation of Photovoltaic Power Plant Based on Markov Chain Monte Carlo Method
- Vol. 43, Issue 3, Pages: 1034-1042(2017)
- 作者机构：
  
  1. 华北电力大学新能源电力系统国家重点实验室
  2. 中国电力科学研究院
- 作者简介：
- 基金信息：
- DOI：
  CLC：
- Published Online：10 March 2017，
  
  Published：2017
- 稿件说明：
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ZHU Xiaorong, WANG Yuning, JIN Huimin, et al. Reliability Evaluation of Photovoltaic Power Plant Based on Markov Chain Monte Carlo Method[J]. 2017, 43(3): 1034-1042.
DOI：

ZHU Xiaorong, WANG Yuning, JIN Huimin, et al. Reliability Evaluation of Photovoltaic Power Plant Based on Markov Chain Monte Carlo Method[J]. 2017, 43(3): 1034-1042. DOI：

摘要

为了对大型光伏电站进行可靠性评估

首先建立了光伏电站各主要元件的可靠性评估模型

然后定义了光伏电站可靠性评价指标体系

最后采用马尔科夫链蒙特卡洛（MCMC）方法对光伏电站可靠性进行了评估。在光伏阵列建模过程中

以误差作为限制条件采用向后场景削减技术对其状态进行了削减和划分

在保证一定精度的同时简化了抽样过程。通过对某大型光伏电站可靠性评估算例

对比分析了MCMC方法和蒙特卡洛（MC）法的指标计算结果、收敛速度和稳定性

结果验证了该方法的评估结果与MC方法结果一致

在相同的收敛条件下所需抽样次数更少

速度更快。

Abstract

In order to evaluate the reliability of large-scale photovoltaic power plant

firstly

we established a reliability evaluation model of the main components of photovoltaic power station.Then

the reliability evaluation index system of photovoltaic power station was defined.Finally

the reliability of photovoltaic power station was evaluated by Markov Chain Monte Carlo（MCMC） method.In the modeling process of PV array

the backward scene reduction technology is used to reduce and divide the states

which can keep the accuracy of original sample as much as possible

and also improve the speed of evaluation.Through an example of the reliability evaluation of a large-scale photovoltaic power station

the convergence speed and stability of MCMC method and Monte Carlo（MC） method are compared and analyzed.The results show that the results of this method are consistent with the results of MC method

and the sampling time is less and the speed is faster under the same convergence condition.

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