Prediction of Disturbed Trajectories in Transient Stability Analysis Based on Self-memory Gray Verhulst Model

HUANG Dan; YANG Xiuyuan; CHEN Shuyong

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Prediction of Disturbed Trajectories in Transient Stability Analysis Based on Self-memory Gray Verhulst Model

更新时间：2025-12-08

- Prediction of Disturbed Trajectories in Transient Stability Analysis Based on Self-memory Gray Verhulst Model
- Vol. 44, Issue 4, Pages: 1285-1291(2018)
- 作者机构：
  
  1. 北京交通大学电气工程学院
  2. 北京信息科技大学自动化学院
  3. 中国电力科学研究院有限公司
- 作者简介：
- 基金信息：
- DOI：
  CLC：
- Published Online：10 May 2018，
  
  Published：2018
- 稿件说明：
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HUANG Dan, YANG Xiuyuan, CHEN Shuyong. Prediction of Disturbed Trajectories in Transient Stability Analysis Based on Self-memory Gray Verhulst Model[J]. 2018, 44(4): 1285-1291.
DOI：

HUANG Dan, YANG Xiuyuan, CHEN Shuyong. Prediction of Disturbed Trajectories in Transient Stability Analysis Based on Self-memory Gray Verhulst Model[J]. 2018, 44(4): 1285-1291. DOI：

摘要

广域测量系统能在统一时标下监视系统各节点的实时轨迹

为暂态稳定实时分析提供了可能。基于灰色系统理论及动力系统的自忆性原理

提出一种基于自忆性灰色Verhulst模型的电力系统暂态稳定受扰轨迹实时预测方法。发电机功角受扰轨迹在每一个摇摆过程中呈"S"型变化

符合灰色Verhulst模型预测要求。针对发电机受扰轨迹较强的随机性和非线性

在传统Verhulst模型预测基础上

构建了具有自忆性的灰色Verhulst模型。该模型不仅考虑了发电机功角轨迹的变化趋势

还利用了历史量测数据

能很好地表征发电机功角受扰轨迹的随机波动特性

提高预测精度和预测时间。将该方法对新英格兰10机39节点系统进行仿真计算

结果表明该方法具有良好的拟合预测效果

为实时暂态稳定分析提供了技术支撑。

Abstract

WAMS（wide area measurement system） can monitor real-time trajectories of power system on unified time scale which makes it possible to analyze the real-time transient stability.Based on the gray system theory and self-memory principle of dynamical system

we proposed a method for the disturbed rotor angle trajectory prediction based on gray Verhulst self-memory model.The trend of disturbed rotor angle trajectory during every swing conforms the sigmoid process of gray Verhulst model.For high randomness and nonlinearity of disturbed rotor angle trajectory

the self-memory gray Verhulst model is built based on the traditional gray Verhulst model prediction.Since the prediction not only considers the change trend of disturbed rotor angle trajectory but also uses the historical data

the random fluctuation of disturbed rotor angle trajectory can be characterized well and the prediction performance is improved.Calculation results of New England 10-machine 30-bus system show that the proposed prediction method is effective and can offer technical supports for real-time transient stability analysis.

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Related Institution

State Key Laboratory of Advanced Electromagnetic Engineering and Technology, Huazhong University of Science and Technology

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