Probabilistic Reliability Evaluation Method of Electricity-gas Integrated Energy System Considering Correlation of Wind Speeds and Loads

ZHANG Xuehan; YU Tao

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Probabilistic Reliability Evaluation Method of Electricity-gas Integrated Energy System Considering Correlation of Wind Speeds and Loads

更新时间：2025-12-08

- Probabilistic Reliability Evaluation Method of Electricity-gas Integrated Energy System Considering Correlation of Wind Speeds and Loads
- Vol. 45, Issue 10, Pages: 3263-3272(2019)
- 作者机构：
  
  华南理工大学电力学院
- 作者简介：
- 基金信息：
- DOI：
  CLC：
- Published Online：31 October 2019，
  
  Published：2019
- 稿件说明：
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ZHANG Xuehan, YU Tao. Probabilistic Reliability Evaluation Method of Electricity-gas Integrated Energy System Considering Correlation of Wind Speeds and Loads[J]. 2019, 45(10): 3263-3272.
DOI：

ZHANG Xuehan, YU Tao. Probabilistic Reliability Evaluation Method of Electricity-gas Integrated Energy System Considering Correlation of Wind Speeds and Loads[J]. 2019, 45(10): 3263-3272. DOI：

摘要

为快速准确地分析风速与负荷的随机性和相关性对电–气互联系统可靠性的影响

提出一种基于点估计法和Nataf逆变换的概率可靠性评估方法。将点估计法推广应用到电–气互联系统的概率可靠性评估之中

使概率问题转化为可用解析法求解的确定性问题。采用Nataf逆变换对风速与负荷进行了处理

研究了更简便高效地求解变换后的相关系数矩阵的新型通用方法

使得点估计法可以处理电–气互联系统中的相关性变量。最后对改进IEEE RBTS-Bus6馈线F4系统和改进NGS10天然气系统组成的电–气互联系统进行了可靠性评估

验证了所提方法的有效性

结果表明应在电–气互联系统可靠性评估中计及相关性的影响。

Abstract

To rapidly and accurately analyze the influences of randomness and correlation of wind speeds and loads on the reliability of an electricity-gas integrated energy system

a probabilistic reliability evaluation method based on the point estimation method and Nataf inverse transformation is proposed. The point estimation method

in which the probability problem is transformed into the deterministic problem that can be solved by the analytical method

is applied to the probabilistic reliability evaluation of the electricity-gas integrated energy system. The wind speeds and loads are processed by the Nataf inverse transformation

and a new general method for solving the transformed correlation matrix more conveniently and efficiently is researched

by which the point estimation method can be adopted to deal with the correlated variables in the electricity-gas integrated energy system. Finally

the effectiveness of the proposed method is verified by the reliability evaluation of the electricity-gas integrated energy system consisting of a modified IEEE RBTS-Bus6 feeder F4 system and a modified NGS10 natural gas system

and the results indicate that the effect of correlation on the reliability evaluation of the electricity-gas integrated energy system should be considered.

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