Evaluation of Transmission Line Icing Prediction Products Based on Fraction Skill Score
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Evaluation of Transmission Line Icing Prediction Products Based on Fraction Skill Score
Vol. 46, Issue 4, Pages: 1450-1457(2020)
作者机构:
1. 中国电力科学研究院有限公司新能源与储能运行控制国家重点实验室/国网公司电力气象联合实验室
2. 国网四川省电力公司电力科学研究院
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Published Online:30 April 2020,
Published:2020
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HUA Shenbing, FENG Shuanglei, JIN Shuanglong, et al. Evaluation of Transmission Line Icing Prediction Products Based on Fraction Skill Score[J]. 2020, 46(4): 1450-1457.
DOI:
HUA Shenbing, FENG Shuanglei, JIN Shuanglong, et al. Evaluation of Transmission Line Icing Prediction Products Based on Fraction Skill Score[J]. 2020, 46(4): 1450-1457.DOI:
Evaluation of Transmission Line Icing Prediction Products Based on Fraction Skill Score
With the enhancement of computing capacity and the development of power icing prediction model
the model can provide more rich prediction information. However
traditional evaluation methods and indicators are not objective and reasonable when it comes to evaluate the existing prediction products. To make full use of existing icing forecast products
we evaluate icing prediction products of Sichuan power grid by comparing with traditional grading methods in winter
2016—2017. The results show that the selected icing forecast products can accurately reflect the icing spatial and temporal distribution though the prediction thickness is 2~3 mm thicker than the observations. Meanwhile
compared with the traditional method
the fraction skill score(FSS) is more flexible and more instructive for the electricity production and operation due to reducing of tendency to miss alarm rates and false alarm rates. In addition
forecast products are credible and reliable in the range of 1~3 km below 20 mm thickness. Few observed samples of 20~28 mm icing data lead to low availability of forecast products. Applying FSS to evaluate the existing icing prediction products is conducive to maximizing the utilization of icing products under the existed prediction accuracy. And it is significant for the use of existing prediction products during power network operation. Moreover
the evaluation results are also feedback to prediction model to optimize the numerical model.