Medium-long-term Quantity of Electricity Forecasting Method in Wind Power Considering Different Wind Energy Characteristics
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Medium-long-term Quantity of Electricity Forecasting Method in Wind Power Considering Different Wind Energy Characteristics
Vol. 47, Issue 4, Pages: 1224-1233(2021)
作者机构:
1. 郑州大学电气工程学院
2. 中国电力科学研究院有限公司新能源与储能运行控制国家重点实验室
3. 国家电力调度控制中心
4. 国网山东省电力公司
作者简介:
基金信息:
DOI:
CLC:
Published Online:30 April 2021,
Published:2021
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SUN Shukai, DONG Cun, WANG Zheng, et al. Medium-long-term Quantity of Electricity Forecasting Method in Wind Power Considering Different Wind Energy Characteristics[J]. 2021, 47(4): 1224-1233.
DOI:
SUN Shukai, DONG Cun, WANG Zheng, et al. Medium-long-term Quantity of Electricity Forecasting Method in Wind Power Considering Different Wind Energy Characteristics[J]. 2021, 47(4): 1224-1233.DOI:
Medium-long-term Quantity of Electricity Forecasting Method in Wind Power Considering Different Wind Energy Characteristics
The medium-long-term electricity forecasting plays an important role in drawing up medium-long-term generation plan
improving new energy consumption and ensuring power balance in power system. The forecast information of future climate state is helpful to improving the forecast precision of medium-long-term quantity of electricity; however
at present the forecast information of medium-long-term quantity of electricity can not be effectively mined and utilized. Consequently
in order to improve the adaptability of the prediction model
a wind energy feature mining model is constructed by taking the wind energy resources regional climate forecast data as input
and the selection of data sets with different forecast error characteristics is realized. Moreover
combined with the actual power generation data of wind farm
the adaptive prediction models are constructed with GWO and LSTM. Compared with the current forecasting methods
the results show that the proposed forecasting method for medium-long-term quantity of electricity can be adopted to realize the total power forecasting of a coastal wind farm and a region
and the performance of the forecasting models is optimal
which proves the validity and advance of the method.