Economic Analysis of System Spinning Reserve Based on Improved CNN-LSTM Short Term Wind Power Prediction
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Economic Analysis of System Spinning Reserve Based on Improved CNN-LSTM Short Term Wind Power Prediction
Vol. 48, Issue 2, Pages: 439-448(2022)
作者机构:
1. 东北电力大学现代电力系统仿真控制与绿色电能新技术教育部重点实验室
2. 国网甘肃省电力有限公司兰州供电公司
3. 中国信息通信研究院
4. 国网吉林省电力有限公司松原供电公司
作者简介:
基金信息:
DOI:
CLC:
Published Online:28 February 2022,
Published:2022
稿件说明:
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CHEN Haipeng, ZHOU Yuehao, WANG Chenlu, et al. Economic Analysis of System Spinning Reserve Based on Improved CNN-LSTM Short Term Wind Power Prediction[J]. 2022, 48(2): 439-448.
DOI:
CHEN Haipeng, ZHOU Yuehao, WANG Chenlu, et al. Economic Analysis of System Spinning Reserve Based on Improved CNN-LSTM Short Term Wind Power Prediction[J]. 2022, 48(2): 439-448.DOI:
Economic Analysis of System Spinning Reserve Based on Improved CNN-LSTM Short Term Wind Power Prediction
In order to accurately predict short-term wind power
a new short-term wind power prediction method is proposed in this paper. Firstly
the Pearson correlation coefficient method was used to analyze the correlation between wind speed
wind direction and other influencing factors and wind power series. Secondly
the convolution neural network(CNN) was used to extract the features of the input sequence. Then
a forgetting gate and an input gate were added to the long short-term memory(LSTM) network to form an LSTM network with multi-level gating. Combined with CNN
an improved CNN-LSTM short-term wind power prediction model which can improve the feature extraction ability and prediction accuracy of input sequence was established. Finally
the simulation analysis was performed with the measured data of a wind farm in Gansu Province of China
and the prediction results were used as the basis for making the scheduling plan to analyze the influence of the test results on the operation cost of the system. The simulation results show that
compared with the LSTM model and the CNN-LSTM model
the root mean square error of the results predicted by this model is reduced by 63.9% and 47.9%
respectively
and the mean absolute error is reduced by 70.4% and 53.5%
respectively
which can improve the accuracy of wind power prediction to a certain extent. The wind power prediction results can effectively reduce the reserved spinning reserve capacity of the system and reduce the operation cost of the system
and provide a strong basis for the formulation of dispatching plan.