Ultra-short-term Interval Forecasting Method for Regional Wind Farms Based on Dynamic R-vine Copula Model
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Ultra-short-term Interval Forecasting Method for Regional Wind Farms Based on Dynamic R-vine Copula Model
Vol. 48, Issue 2, Pages: 456-470(2022)
作者机构:
1. 华中科技大学电气与电子工程学院强电磁工程与新技术国家重点实验室
2. 华中科技大学电气与电子工程学院电力安全与高效湖北省重点实验室
作者简介:
基金信息:
DOI:
CLC:
Published Online:28 February 2022,
Published:2022
稿件说明:
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TU Qingyu, MIAO Shihong, LIN Yujun, et al. Ultra-short-term Interval Forecasting Method for Regional Wind Farms Based on Dynamic R-vine Copula Model[J]. 2022, 48(2): 456-470.
DOI:
TU Qingyu, MIAO Shihong, LIN Yujun, et al. Ultra-short-term Interval Forecasting Method for Regional Wind Farms Based on Dynamic R-vine Copula Model[J]. 2022, 48(2): 456-470.DOI:
Ultra-short-term Interval Forecasting Method for Regional Wind Farms Based on Dynamic R-vine Copula Model
In order to deal with the risk brought by the uncertainty of wind power to the safe operation of power grid
the interval forecasting method has received extensive attention in recent years. However
the existing researches mainly focus on the forecasting method for the single wind farm
and negligibly focus on the methods for regional wind farms. In view of the above problem
the dynamic R-vine Copula model is established in this paper
and the ultra-short-term interval forecasting method for regional wind farms is proposed. Firstly
the framework of the ultra-short-term interval forecasting method is described in detail. Secondly
the method of establishing the joint probability distribution of the forecast power and total forecast error for multiple wind farms based on the R-vine Copula model is briefly introduced.Then
the dynamic R-vine Copula model is established in three steps as follows: the dynamic marginal distribution model is established based on the ARIMA-GARCH model; the DCC and Patton models are introduced to establish the dynamic Pair Copula model; on this basis
the calculation method for the topology structure of the dynamic R-vine Copula is proposed. Finally
the case study is carried out based on the data from 9 wind farms in Xinjiang Autonomous Region(Northeast of China) for one year. The simulation results verify the effectiveness of the proposed model
and show that the forecasting results of the proposed model have good reliability
sharpness and skill score indexes. The research can provide a reference for the topic of the prediction of ultra-short-term interval forecasting for regional wind farms.