夏翔, 谢颖捷, 方建亮, 姜巍, 陈波. 基于改进评价指标的电力需求预测模型研究[J]. 电网与清洁能源, 2021, 37(1): 62-67,76.
引用本文: 夏翔, 谢颖捷, 方建亮, 姜巍, 陈波. 基于改进评价指标的电力需求预测模型研究[J]. 电网与清洁能源, 2021, 37(1): 62-67,76.
XIA Xiang, XIE Yingjie, FANG Jianliang, JIANG Wei, CHEN Bo. Research on Electricity Demand Forecasting Model Based on Improved Evaluation Index[J]. Power system and Clean Energy, 2021, 37(1): 62-67,76.
Citation: XIA Xiang, XIE Yingjie, FANG Jianliang, JIANG Wei, CHEN Bo. Research on Electricity Demand Forecasting Model Based on Improved Evaluation Index[J]. Power system and Clean Energy, 2021, 37(1): 62-67,76.

基于改进评价指标的电力需求预测模型研究

Research on Electricity Demand Forecasting Model Based on Improved Evaluation Index

  • 摘要: 传统的电力需求预测模型无法满足智能电力系统供电的预测需求,为此基于改进评价指标的电力需求预测模型,选取相对比值法编制电力需求预测模型的改进评价指标体系,以电力需求评价为总目标建立改进电力需求评价指标体系战略目标层,其中包括经济发展、人口与社会发展、电网结构与管理水平、自然环境以及政策和法律环境5部分。针对改进的电力需求评价指标实施不同尺度小波分解,获取不同时间段不同尺度的信号能量波动,利用灰色模型拟合叠加各尺度小波分解结果,获取最终电力需求预测结果。实验结果表明,采用该模型可准确预测实验地区短期、中长期以及长期的电力需求,且预测结果精度高于99%,具有较高的实用性。

     

    Abstract: The traditional power demand forecasting model is not able to meet the demand of the intelligent power system.Therefore,based on the power demand forecasting model of improved evaluation index,the relative ratio method is selected to develop the improved evaluation index system of the power demand forecasting model,and the strategic target layer of the improved power demand evaluation index system is established with the overall target of power demand evaluation,including economic development,population and social development,power grid structure and management level, natural environment,policy and legal environment. According to the improved power demand evaluation index,different scales of wavelet decomposition are implemented to obtain the signal energy fluctuations of different scales in different time periods.The gray model is used to fit and stack the wavelet decomposition results of different scales to obtain the final power demand prediction results. The experimental results show that the model can accurately predict the short-term,medium-term and long-term power demand in the experimental area,and the accuracy of the prediction results is higher than 99%,and the model is highly practicable.

     

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