陈宋宋, 王阳, 周颖, 邱敏, 赵伟博, 郭耀扬, 赵波. 基于客户用电数据的多时空维度负荷预测综述[J]. 电网与清洁能源, 2023, 39(12): 28-40.
引用本文: 陈宋宋, 王阳, 周颖, 邱敏, 赵伟博, 郭耀扬, 赵波. 基于客户用电数据的多时空维度负荷预测综述[J]. 电网与清洁能源, 2023, 39(12): 28-40.
CHEN Songsong, WANG Yang, ZHOU Ying, QIU Min, ZHAO Weibo, GUO Yaoyang, ZHAO Bo. A Review of Multi-Time-Space Load Forecasting Based on Customer Electricity Consumption Data[J]. Power system and Clean Energy, 2023, 39(12): 28-40.
Citation: CHEN Songsong, WANG Yang, ZHOU Ying, QIU Min, ZHAO Weibo, GUO Yaoyang, ZHAO Bo. A Review of Multi-Time-Space Load Forecasting Based on Customer Electricity Consumption Data[J]. Power system and Clean Energy, 2023, 39(12): 28-40.

基于客户用电数据的多时空维度负荷预测综述

A Review of Multi-Time-Space Load Forecasting Based on Customer Electricity Consumption Data

  • 摘要: 随着新型电力系统建设的快速推进,风力发电、光伏发电等新能源比例的不断升高,电动汽车等新型电力负荷的加入,以及用户参与新型电力市场需求响应等新形势,均对电网结构产生深刻影响,使得客户用电负荷时空特性逐渐增强,进一步对电力负荷预测技术提出了新的要求。该文在此背景下,对电力负荷预测现有技术进行总结与展望。首先,从预测方法、预测尺度、预测对象等多方面分析电力负荷变化给负荷预测带来的变革;在分析传统电力负荷预测技术不足的同时,对现代电力负荷预测方法和技术进行总结;进而,梳理出目前电力负荷预测领域面临着数据可用性、影响因素多元化、地区差异性等方面的挑战;进一步地针对这些挑战,对未来电力负荷预测在技术层面和应用层面的发展进行分析和展望。

     

    Abstract: The continuous advancement of the construction of new power systems,the increase in the proportion of new energy sources such as wind power generation and photovoltaic power generation,the addition of new power loads represented by electric vehicles,and the participation of users in demand response in the new power market,all these have a profound impact on the grid structure and gradually enhance the spatiotemporal characteristics of customer electricity load,raising new requirements for customer load forecasting technology. In this context, this article examines and summarizes the existing technologies for customer power load forecasting. First,the paper analyzes the changes brought by power load changes to load forecasting from various aspects such as forecast methods, forecast scales, and forecast object.Second,while analyzing the shortcomings of traditional power load forecasting technologies,the paper summarizes modern power load forecasting methods and technologies;furthermore,it sorts out the challenges of data availability,diversification of influencing factors and regional differences in the field of load forecasting. Finally,to meet these challenges,analysis and prospect are given to the development of future load forecasting technology in technical and application aspects.

     

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