皇甫成, 郭金智, 贾非, 汪鸿. 一种考虑新能源出力相关性及不确定性的分布式发电规划策略[J]. 电网与清洁能源, 2022, 38(3): 105-110,118.
引用本文: 皇甫成, 郭金智, 贾非, 汪鸿. 一种考虑新能源出力相关性及不确定性的分布式发电规划策略[J]. 电网与清洁能源, 2022, 38(3): 105-110,118.
HUANGFU Cheng, GUO Jinzhi, JIA Fei, WANG Hong. A Distributed Generation Planning Strategy Considering the Correlation and Uncertainty of Renewable Energy Output[J]. Power system and Clean Energy, 2022, 38(3): 105-110,118.
Citation: HUANGFU Cheng, GUO Jinzhi, JIA Fei, WANG Hong. A Distributed Generation Planning Strategy Considering the Correlation and Uncertainty of Renewable Energy Output[J]. Power system and Clean Energy, 2022, 38(3): 105-110,118.

一种考虑新能源出力相关性及不确定性的分布式发电规划策略

A Distributed Generation Planning Strategy Considering the Correlation and Uncertainty of Renewable Energy Output

  • 摘要: 分布式可再生能源的大规模应用及并网给传统电网的规划及运行均带来了挑战及冲击。该文提出一种考虑新能源出力相关性及不确定性的分布式发电规划策略。该方法首先基于Cholesky分解同时获得满足风电出力分布及风电场出力相关性的新能源出力抽样方法。然后,考虑新能源出力的不确定性,提出一种基于新能源多场景出力的概率规划模型。随后,基于该模型规模庞大、约束非线性特点,提出一种基于节点有功变化的部分线损计算策略。最后,在IEEE33节点测试系统上进行了测试,证明了该方法的有效性。

     

    Abstract: The large-scale application and integration of distributed renewable energy bring great challenges to the planning and operation of the traditional power grid. This paper presents a distributed generation planning strategy considering the correlation and uncertainty of renewable energy output. Firstly,based on Cholesky decomposition,a renewable energy output sampling method which meets the wind power output distribution and wind farm output correlation is obtained. Secondly,considering the uncertainty of renewable energy output, a probabilistic programming model based on renewable energy multi scenario output is proposed. And a partial line loss calculation strategy based on node active power change is proposed considering the large scale and nonlinear constraint characteristics of the model. Finally,the IEEE 33 bus test system is applied to prove the effectiveness of the proposed method.

     

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