A Decision Model for Thermal Coal Stockpile Reserves Considering the Output Features of Renewable Energy Power Generation

The increasing proportion of renewable energy sources introduces uncertainties in the security of power supply. Enhancing the management of thermal coal stockpile reserves has become crucial to ensure the reliability and stability of the emerging new electric power system. To resolve temporal scale mismatches between renewable energy power generation data measurements and thermal coal reserve decisions, this paper extracts new energy power generation output data features with multiple time scales based on k-means clustering method. Considering economic and safety requirements, a dual reserve structure for the thermal coal stockpile is established to comprehensively address regular thermal power production demands and contingencies resulting from unforeseen events. The extracted output features of renewable energy power are factored into a dynamic programming model with proposed solutions. Finally, taking the actual data of N Province in China as an example, the results show that the dual reserve structure for thermal coal stockpile can achieve power supply security in most emergency scenarios at a lower cost, and the additional reserve cost paid in response to extreme weather only accounts for three percent of the total cost without interruption. These results offer valuable insights and guidance for decision- making in thermal coal stockpile reserve management practices.