张美霞, 孙铨杰, 杨秀. 考虑多源信息实时交互和用户后悔心理的电动汽车充电负荷预测[J]. 电网技术, 2022, 46(2): 632-641. DOI: 10.13335/j.1000-3673.pst.2021.0273
引用本文: 张美霞, 孙铨杰, 杨秀. 考虑多源信息实时交互和用户后悔心理的电动汽车充电负荷预测[J]. 电网技术, 2022, 46(2): 632-641. DOI: 10.13335/j.1000-3673.pst.2021.0273
ZHANG Meixia, SUN Quanjie, YANG Xiu. Electric Vehicle Charging Load Prediction Considering Multi-source Information Real-time Interaction and User Regret Psychology[J]. Power System Technology, 2022, 46(2): 632-641. DOI: 10.13335/j.1000-3673.pst.2021.0273
Citation: ZHANG Meixia, SUN Quanjie, YANG Xiu. Electric Vehicle Charging Load Prediction Considering Multi-source Information Real-time Interaction and User Regret Psychology[J]. Power System Technology, 2022, 46(2): 632-641. DOI: 10.13335/j.1000-3673.pst.2021.0273

考虑多源信息实时交互和用户后悔心理的电动汽车充电负荷预测

Electric Vehicle Charging Load Prediction Considering Multi-source Information Real-time Interaction and User Regret Psychology

  • 摘要: 文章提出了一种考虑多源信息实时交互和用户后悔心理的电动汽车充电负荷预测方法。首先,通过出行链理论和起止点(origin-destination,OD)矩阵法分别获得私家车和出租车出行的起讫点,利用Dijistra算法规划行驶路径;然后,构建基于路网实时车流量统计的速度-流量实用模型,计算路网各路段实时车速。构建考虑环境温度和车速的电动汽车单位里程耗电量模型,计算耗电量;接着考虑充电电价、时间、沿途耗电量等因素,提出基于后悔理论的电动汽车用户充电站选择模型;随后基于交通路网、车辆、公共快充站以及配电网等多源信息,建立多源信息实时交互的电动汽车充电负荷预测框架。最后采用蒙特卡洛法模拟了私家车和出租车的出行和充电过程,得到了区域内充电负荷时空分布。以某区域交通路网和典型配电网为例进行仿真,验证了所提充电负荷预测方法的有效性。仿真结果表明多源信息的及时交互以及考虑用户的后悔心理,会对充电负荷的时空分布产生影响。

     

    Abstract: This paper proposes a method for predicting the charging load of electric vehicles considering real-time interaction of multi-source information and user regret psychology. Firstly, the starting and ending points of the private car and taxi trips are obtained through the travel chain theory and the OD matrix method respectively, and the driving routes are planned using the Dijistra algorithm; Then, a practical speed-flow model based on the real-time traffic statistics of the road network is constructed to calculate the real-time vehicle speeds in each road section of the road network. A power consumption model per unit mile for the electric vehicles is constructed considering the environmental temperatures and vehicle speeds, and the power consumption is calculated. Next, the electric vehicle charging station selection model based on the regret theory is proposed, taking into account the factors such as the charging tariff, driving time, queuing time and power consumption along the routes. Based on the information from the multiple sources such as the traffic network, vehicles, fast-charging stations, the distribution network and so on, a multi-source real-time interactive EV charging load prediction system is established. Finally, the Monte Carlo method is used to simulate the travel and charging processes of the private cars and taxis, and the spatial and temporal distribution of the charging loads in the region is obtained. Simulations are carried out on a regional traffic road network and a typical distribution network and the effectiveness of the proposed charging load forecasting method is verified. The simulation results show that the timely information interaction of multiple sources will have an impact on the spatio-temporal distribution of the charging loads.

     

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