石卓见, 冉启武, 徐福聪. 基于聚合二次模态分解及Informer的短期负荷预测[J]. 电网技术, 2024, 48(6): 2574-2583. DOI: 10.13335/j.1000-3673.pst.2023.1467
引用本文: 石卓见, 冉启武, 徐福聪. 基于聚合二次模态分解及Informer的短期负荷预测[J]. 电网技术, 2024, 48(6): 2574-2583. DOI: 10.13335/j.1000-3673.pst.2023.1467
SHI Zhuojian, RAN Qiwu, XU Fucong. Short-term Load Forecasting Based on Aggregated Secondary Decomposition and Informer[J]. Power System Technology, 2024, 48(6): 2574-2583. DOI: 10.13335/j.1000-3673.pst.2023.1467
Citation: SHI Zhuojian, RAN Qiwu, XU Fucong. Short-term Load Forecasting Based on Aggregated Secondary Decomposition and Informer[J]. Power System Technology, 2024, 48(6): 2574-2583. DOI: 10.13335/j.1000-3673.pst.2023.1467

基于聚合二次模态分解及Informer的短期负荷预测

Short-term Load Forecasting Based on Aggregated Secondary Decomposition and Informer

  • 摘要: 针对区域级负荷的非平稳性及长序列预测精度低的问题,该文提出了一种基于聚合二次模态分解及Informer的短期负荷预测方法。首先,运用改进完全集合经验模态分解(improved complete ensemble empirical mode decomposition with adaptive noise,ICEEMDAN)对负荷序列进行初步分解,削弱原始序列的随机性与波动性;其次,根据子序列的样本熵计算结果进行聚合,并通过比较不同的聚合方式选出最优重构方案;然后,利用变分模态分解对高复杂度的合作模态函数进行二次分解;充分考虑到电价、气象等因素对负荷的影响,采用随机森林(random forest,RF)算法进行相关性分析,从而为每个子序列构建不同的高耦合度特征矩阵并输入Informer进行建模,并通过其多层次编码及稀疏多头自注意力机制等方式提高对负荷序列的预测效率;最后采用巴塞罗那区域级负荷数据集进行实例验证,结果显示所提框架有效解决了模态分解过程中的模态混叠以及高频分量问题,并且其长序列预测均方根误差相比其他经典深度学习模型最高降低了65.28%。

     

    Abstract: A short-term load forecasting method based on aggregated Secondary modal decomposition and Informer is proposed to address the issue of non-stationarity in regional load and the low prediction accuracy of long sequences. Initially, the load sequence undergoes a preliminary decomposition using the improved complete ensemble EMD with adaptive noise (ICEEMDAN), tempering the original sequence's randomness and volatility. Subsequently, based on the entropy calculations of the sub-sequences, they aggregate, and by comparing various aggregation methods, the optimal reconstruction scheme is selected. The variational modal decomposition is employed to decompose the high-complexity co-modal functions further. Considering the impacts of electricity prices and meteorological factors on the load, the Random Forest (RF) algorithm is used for correlation analysis, constructing distinct high-coupling feature matrices for each sub-sequence and inputting them into the Informer for modeling. This enhances the forecasting efficiency of the load sequence through its multi-level encoding and sparse multi-head self-attention mechanisms. Ultimately, using the Barcelona regional-level load dataset for empirical verification, the findings affirm the prowess of the introduced framework in adeptly addressing the conundrums of modal overlap and high-frequency components encountered during modal decomposition. Furthermore, in a comparative analysis with revered deep learning paradigms, it manifests a commendable reduction of up to 65.28% in the root mean square error of long-sequence prediction.

     

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