吴涵, 王瑾辉, 苗安康, 袁越. 基于广义极值分布的线路负载率指标及计算方法[J]. 电网技术, 2023, 47(2): 773-783. DOI: 10.13335/j.1000-3673.pst.2021.1609
引用本文: 吴涵, 王瑾辉, 苗安康, 袁越. 基于广义极值分布的线路负载率指标及计算方法[J]. 电网技术, 2023, 47(2): 773-783. DOI: 10.13335/j.1000-3673.pst.2021.1609
WU Han, WANG Jinhui, MIAO Ankang, YUAN Yue. Feeder Burden Rate and Calculation Method Based on Generalized Extreme Value Distribution[J]. Power System Technology, 2023, 47(2): 773-783. DOI: 10.13335/j.1000-3673.pst.2021.1609
Citation: WU Han, WANG Jinhui, MIAO Ankang, YUAN Yue. Feeder Burden Rate and Calculation Method Based on Generalized Extreme Value Distribution[J]. Power System Technology, 2023, 47(2): 773-783. DOI: 10.13335/j.1000-3673.pst.2021.1609

基于广义极值分布的线路负载率指标及计算方法

Feeder Burden Rate and Calculation Method Based on Generalized Extreme Value Distribution

  • 摘要: 针对高随机性负荷渗透率下配电网线路负载状态评估的问题,文章在极值理论的基础上引入负荷重现水平和负荷重现期概念,建立一种新的线路负载能力概率性评价指标,即T年期线路负载率。考虑不同配网系统的负荷结构和网架结构的差异,结合负荷同时率提出一种适用于多类型负荷配网环境下线路负载率的计算方法。以江苏某工业园区、浙江某城市、安徽某农村等3种典型场景下的配电网为例分析“一年一遇”、“五年一遇”和“十年一遇”等不同重现期下的线路负载率,并对线路负载率达到不同重现水平时发生“重载事件”和“超载事件”的最小重现期进行研究。结果表明该指标能够在低样本容量下有效评估含随机性负荷的配电线路的负载状态,所提方法在含多类型负荷的配电网中具备广泛的适用性。

     

    Abstract: To solve the problem of feeder condition evaluation caused by the fluctuating peak loads, this paper introduces the concepts of load return level and load return period based on the generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution theory and establishes a probabilistic index T-year feeder burden rate to evaluate the burden state of distribution network. Considering the differences of load structures and grid structures of different distribution network systems, a calculation method of T-year feeder burden rate for distribution network with various types of loads by introducing the load coincidence factor because of load diversity. The distribution networks under three typical scenarios of a rural area in Anhui province, a city in Zhejiang province, and an industrial park in Jiangsu province are used as examples to analyze the feeder extreme burden rate under different return periods of "once a year", "once in five years" and "once in ten years". Meanwhile, the minimum return periods of the events with heavy loads and extra loads when the feeder extreme burden rate reaches different return levels are studied. The results and analysis of the case show that the index effectively evaluates the burden state of feeders with a low sample size, and the proposed calculation method has a wide applicability in distribution networks with various of fluctuating loads.

     

/

返回文章
返回