潘恒毅, 许建中, 华回春, 贾秀芳, 付丰豪. 基于半马尔科夫过程的混合式直流断路器多状态可靠性分析[J]. 电网技术, 2023, 47(4): 1692-1700. DOI: 10.13335/j.1000-3673.pst.2022.1164
引用本文: 潘恒毅, 许建中, 华回春, 贾秀芳, 付丰豪. 基于半马尔科夫过程的混合式直流断路器多状态可靠性分析[J]. 电网技术, 2023, 47(4): 1692-1700. DOI: 10.13335/j.1000-3673.pst.2022.1164
PAN Hengyi, XU Jianzhong, HUA Huichun, JIA Xiufang, FU Fenghao. Multi-state Reliability Analysis of Hybrid DC Circuit Breakers Based on Semi-Markov Process[J]. Power System Technology, 2023, 47(4): 1692-1700. DOI: 10.13335/j.1000-3673.pst.2022.1164
Citation: PAN Hengyi, XU Jianzhong, HUA Huichun, JIA Xiufang, FU Fenghao. Multi-state Reliability Analysis of Hybrid DC Circuit Breakers Based on Semi-Markov Process[J]. Power System Technology, 2023, 47(4): 1692-1700. DOI: 10.13335/j.1000-3673.pst.2022.1164

基于半马尔科夫过程的混合式直流断路器多状态可靠性分析

Multi-state Reliability Analysis of Hybrid DC Circuit Breakers Based on Semi-Markov Process

  • 摘要: 混合式直流断路器是柔性直流输电系统中实现故障快速切除的关键设备,其可靠性直接影响柔性直流输电系统的运行水平。首先综合考虑设备多级劣化状态、维修状态和老化状态,建立混合式直流断路器多状态转移模型。之后在拓扑分析的基础上通过可靠性框图法计算其基础故障率水平,结合健康指数理论和威布尔分布得到考虑状态差异的离散化时变故障率模型,同时纳入巡检率和维修率得到多状态转移率模型。进而基于半马尔科夫过程进行可靠性分析。算例以某柔直示范工程为背景计算混合式直流断路器多状态可靠性指标,并对其巡检周期和各冗余系统冗余度进行灵敏度分析,研究可为混合式直流断路器的巡检安排和冗余配置提供策略参考。

     

    Abstract: As a key device in the flexible DC transmission system to achieve a rapid fault removal, the reliability of the hybrid DC circuit breaker directly affects the operation level of the system. Firstly, the multi-state transfer model of the hybrid DC circuit breaker is established by considering the multi-level deterioration state, the maintenance state and the ageing state of the equipment. Afterwards, the basic failure rate is calculated with the reliability block diagram based on the topological analysis. A discretized time-varying failure rate model is obtained combining the health index theory with the Weibull distribution to consider the state differences, while the inspection rate and the maintenance rate are incorporated to obtain the multi-state transfer rate model. The reliability analysis then goes on based on a semi-Markov process. The multi-state reliability index of the hybrid DC circuit breaker is calculated in the context of a certain flexible direct demonstration project, and the sensitivity analysis is carried out on the inspection cycle and the redundancy of each redundant system, the study can provide a strategic reference for the maintenance arrangement and redundancy configuration of hybrid DC circuit breakers.

     

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