沈运帷, 高哲康, 林顺富, 周波, 李东东. 面向小样本数据的居民用户用电行为刻画及其需求响应潜力评估[J]. 电网技术, 2025, 49(5): 2057-2066. DOI: 10.13335/j.1000-3673.pst.2024.1557
引用本文: 沈运帷, 高哲康, 林顺富, 周波, 李东东. 面向小样本数据的居民用户用电行为刻画及其需求响应潜力评估[J]. 电网技术, 2025, 49(5): 2057-2066. DOI: 10.13335/j.1000-3673.pst.2024.1557
SHEN Yunwei, GAO Zhekang, LIN Shunfu, ZHOU Bo, LI Dongdong. Portrait of Residential Customers' Electricity Consumption Behavior and Its Assessment on Demand Response Potential Based on Small-sample Data[J]. Power System Technology, 2025, 49(5): 2057-2066. DOI: 10.13335/j.1000-3673.pst.2024.1557
Citation: SHEN Yunwei, GAO Zhekang, LIN Shunfu, ZHOU Bo, LI Dongdong. Portrait of Residential Customers' Electricity Consumption Behavior and Its Assessment on Demand Response Potential Based on Small-sample Data[J]. Power System Technology, 2025, 49(5): 2057-2066. DOI: 10.13335/j.1000-3673.pst.2024.1557

面向小样本数据的居民用户用电行为刻画及其需求响应潜力评估

Portrait of Residential Customers' Electricity Consumption Behavior and Its Assessment on Demand Response Potential Based on Small-sample Data

  • 摘要: 在引导需求响应资源有序地参加需求响应的过程中,示范项目用户真实的响应数据积累较少。为实现聚合控制下居民用户的响应潜力量化评估,针对历史响应样本缺失造成的小样本问题,文章提出一种适应小样本特性的需求响应潜力评估方法。首先,针对时间序列数据在时间轴上存在的动态特性,采用加权动态时间规划实现了对居民典型日负荷模式的辨识,并根据负荷响应时段的分布特性,设置了潜力用户遴选标准。在此基础上,采用深度聚类算法实现了多维影响因素作用下潜力用户的精准分类。其次,构建了潜力用户响应特征生成模型,通过潜力用户响应时段的负荷信息生成分布规律类似的负荷信息,达到构建增强数据集的目的。同时,考虑真实标签缺失导致的小样本特性,利用协同回归算法对增强数据集的用户响应标签进行预测,弱化了潜力评估模型对响应标签的依赖。最后,通过算例分析验证了所提方法的有效性,可为新形势下引导城市居民用户需求响应工作提供借鉴。

     

    Abstract: In the process of guiding demand response in an orderly manner, the historical response data of demonstration project users is less accumulated. To quantitatively evaluate the response potential of residential users under aggregate control, aiming at the problem of small samples caused by the lack of historical response samples, this paper proposes a demand response potential evaluation method that adapts to the characteristics of small samples. Firstly, given the dynamic characteristics of time series data on the time axis, weighted dynamic time warping was used to identify the typical daily load patterns of residents, and the selection criteria for potential users were set according to the distribution characteristics of the load response period; On this basis, the deep clustering algorithm is used to achieve accurate classification of potential users under the action of multi-dimensional influencing factors. Secondly, the potential user response feature generation model is constructed to generate load information with a similar distribution pattern through the load information of the potential user's response time to construct an enhanced dataset. At the same time, considering the small-sample characteristics caused by the absence of real labels, the Co-regression algorithm was used to predict the user response labels of the enhanced dataset to weaken the dependence of the potential evaluation model on the response labels. Finally, the method's effectiveness is verified through a case study, which provides a reference for guiding the demand response of urban residents under the new situation.

     

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