易健, 黄漪帅, 梁清鹤, 刘雨濛, 杨超, 王羿博, 李少岩. 现货市场下考虑预测误差的风电场日前报价策略研究[J]. 电网技术, 2025, 49(3): 1079-1088. DOI: 10.13335/j.1000-3673.pst.2024.1136
引用本文: 易健, 黄漪帅, 梁清鹤, 刘雨濛, 杨超, 王羿博, 李少岩. 现货市场下考虑预测误差的风电场日前报价策略研究[J]. 电网技术, 2025, 49(3): 1079-1088. DOI: 10.13335/j.1000-3673.pst.2024.1136
YI Jian, HUANG Yishuai, LIANG Qinghe, LIU Yumeng, YANG Chao, WANG Yibo, LI Shaoyan. Research on the Day Ahead Quotation Strategy of Wind Farm Considering Prediction Errors in the Spot Market[J]. Power System Technology, 2025, 49(3): 1079-1088. DOI: 10.13335/j.1000-3673.pst.2024.1136
Citation: YI Jian, HUANG Yishuai, LIANG Qinghe, LIU Yumeng, YANG Chao, WANG Yibo, LI Shaoyan. Research on the Day Ahead Quotation Strategy of Wind Farm Considering Prediction Errors in the Spot Market[J]. Power System Technology, 2025, 49(3): 1079-1088. DOI: 10.13335/j.1000-3673.pst.2024.1136

现货市场下考虑预测误差的风电场日前报价策略研究

Research on the Day Ahead Quotation Strategy of Wind Farm Considering Prediction Errors in the Spot Market

  • 摘要: 随着新能源装机容量逐步增大以及我国市场化改革逐渐成熟,风电等新能源将逐步以报量报价的方式参与电力现货市场。针对新能源出力的不确定性可能会对其市场行为带来偏差惩罚的问题,文章提出一种考虑预测误差的风电日前阶梯曲线报价策略。首先,在集中式电力市场的基础上,根据预测误差概率密度分布,提出了考虑预测误差的风电阶梯报价策略;其次,基于概率分布抽取预测误差场景并建立了风电参与日前市场的双层报价模型,其中上层为风电场站参与日前市场获利最大化的报价模型,下层为购电费用最小化的日前市场出清模型;最后,为高效求解双层模型,采用狐猴算法和规划求解相结合的方式进行求解。算例分析表明,所提出的报价方法能够缓解不确定性带来的风险,减少偏差惩罚,提高获利并且能够对系统的调节能力有一定支撑。

     

    Abstract: As the installed capacity of new energy gradually increases and China's market-oriented reform matures, new energy sources such as wind power will gradually participate in the electricity spot market through quantity bidding. In response to the issue that the uncertainty of new energy output may bring bias penalties to its market behavior, this paper proposes a wind power day ahead step curve pricing strategy that considers prediction errors. Firstly, based on the centralized electricity market, a wind power tiered pricing strategy considering prediction errors is proposed according to the probability density distribution of prediction errors. Secondly, based on probability distribution, prediction error scenarios were extracted, and a double-layer bidding model for wind power participation in the day ahead market was established. The upper layer is the bidding model that maximizes the profit of wind farm stations participating in the day-ahead market, and the lower layer is the day-ahead market clearing model that minimizes electricity purchase costs. Finally, a combination of the lemur algorithm and programming solution was used to efficiently solve the two-layer model. The case analysis showed that the proposed quotation method could alleviate the risks brought by uncertainty, reduce deviation penalties, improve profits, and provide certain support for the system's regulatory ability.

     

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