黄子桓, 林伟芳. 中国城市能源电力转型发展战略影响因素量化模型及分析[J]. 电网技术, 2024, 48(10): 4106-4114. DOI: 10.13335/j.1000-3673.pst.2024.0050
引用本文: 黄子桓, 林伟芳. 中国城市能源电力转型发展战略影响因素量化模型及分析[J]. 电网技术, 2024, 48(10): 4106-4114. DOI: 10.13335/j.1000-3673.pst.2024.0050
HUANG Zihuan, LIN Weifang. Quantitative Model and Analysis of Factors Influencing the Development Strategy of Urban Energy and Electricity Transformation in China[J]. Power System Technology, 2024, 48(10): 4106-4114. DOI: 10.13335/j.1000-3673.pst.2024.0050
Citation: HUANG Zihuan, LIN Weifang. Quantitative Model and Analysis of Factors Influencing the Development Strategy of Urban Energy and Electricity Transformation in China[J]. Power System Technology, 2024, 48(10): 4106-4114. DOI: 10.13335/j.1000-3673.pst.2024.0050

中国城市能源电力转型发展战略影响因素量化模型及分析

Quantitative Model and Analysis of Factors Influencing the Development Strategy of Urban Energy and Electricity Transformation in China

  • 摘要: 随着国家碳达峰、碳中和目标的提出,作为二氧化碳主要排放源的城市能源电力消耗,其转型面临着极大的挑战。由于影响因素的指标计算存在极大的主观差异,该文根据中国296个地级市和4个直辖市的面板数据,基于信息熵提出了中国城市能源电力转型的影响因素指标体系。为解决传统线性统计学模型对城市能源电力转型影响因素的解释存在局限性的问题,该文提出了“基于SHAP值神经网络-个体随机效应-时间固定效应的混合模型”,分析了中国城市能源电力转型战略影响因素,阐述了中国城市能源电力转型的特征,并分析了不同区域、不同发展规模等级的城市能源电力转型影响因素的差异性特征和产生原因,提出了有针对性的发展战略建议,为能源电力转型战略的制定提供了理论基础。

     

    Abstract: With the proposal of the national carbon peak and carbon neutrality goals, urban energy and power consumption, as the main source of carbon dioxide emissions, faces great challenges in its transformation. Due to the great subjective differences in calculating the influencing factors, this paper proposes the influencing factors index system of China's urban energy and power transformation based on the panel data of 296 prefecture-level cities and 4 municipalities in China, based on information entropy. To overcome the limitations of traditional linear statistical models in explaining the influencing factors of urban energy and power transformation, this paper proposes a "mixed model based on SHAP value neural network-individual random effect-time fixed effect", analyzes the influencing factors of China's urban energy and power transformation strategy, expounds the characteristics of China's urban energy and power transformation, and analyzes the differences and causes of the influencing factors of urban energy and power transformation in different regions and different development scale levels, and puts forward targeted development strategy suggestions, which provide a theoretical basis for the formulation of energy and power transformation strategy.

     

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