陈飞雄, 吴鸿斌, 邵振国, 李壹民, 张河, 苏炜琦. 电力系统仿射潮流多场景不确定性分析方法[J]. 电网技术, 2025, 49(1): 252-262. DOI: 10.13335/j.1000-3673.pst.2023.1880
引用本文: 陈飞雄, 吴鸿斌, 邵振国, 李壹民, 张河, 苏炜琦. 电力系统仿射潮流多场景不确定性分析方法[J]. 电网技术, 2025, 49(1): 252-262. DOI: 10.13335/j.1000-3673.pst.2023.1880
CHEN Feixiong, WU Hongbin, SHAO Zhenguo, LI Yimin, ZHANG He, SU Weiqi. Affine Power Flow Multi-scenario Uncertainty Analysis Method for Power System[J]. Power System Technology, 2025, 49(1): 252-262. DOI: 10.13335/j.1000-3673.pst.2023.1880
Citation: CHEN Feixiong, WU Hongbin, SHAO Zhenguo, LI Yimin, ZHANG He, SU Weiqi. Affine Power Flow Multi-scenario Uncertainty Analysis Method for Power System[J]. Power System Technology, 2025, 49(1): 252-262. DOI: 10.13335/j.1000-3673.pst.2023.1880

电力系统仿射潮流多场景不确定性分析方法

Affine Power Flow Multi-scenario Uncertainty Analysis Method for Power System

  • 摘要: 现有仿射潮流方法计算所得潮流解仅能反映某一源荷功率区间范围下的系统潮流分布,难以满足多场景不确定性分析的在线计算需求。针对上述问题,提出一种电力系统仿射潮流多场景不确定性分析方法。该方法采用多个具有不同物理意义的全纯嵌入变量,缩放仿射注入功率的中心值和噪声元系数,以此追踪和描述不确定性注入功率的区间变化,将仿射潮流的解析维度由一维拓展至高维。仿射潮流计算可划分为仿射型潮流解析表达式求解和在线计算2部分,以递归的方式求解仿射状态量的各阶多元幂级数系数,获取仿射型潮流解析表达式,进而通过代入嵌入变量目标值实现具体场景下的仿射潮流在线计算。仿真结果验证了所提方法在收敛性、保守性和多场景分析效率等方面的优势。

     

    Abstract: The power flow solution calculated by the existing affine power flow method can only reflect the power flow distribution of the system in a certain range of the source load power, which is difficult to meet the online calculation requirements of multi-scenario uncertainty analysis. To solve these problems, an affine power flow multi-scenario uncertainty analysis method is proposed in this paper. Various holomorphic embedding variables with different physical meanings are used to scale the central values and partial deviation coefficients of the affine injection power. In this way, the interval variation of uncertain injection power is tracked and described, and the analytical dimension of the affine power flow is expanded from one dimension to multiple dimensions. The calculation of affine power flow is divided into two parts: analytic expression solving and online calculation. The multivariate power series coefficients of affine status variables are solved recursively, and the analytical expression for affine power flow is obtained. The online calculation of affine power flow in specific scenarios is realized by substituting the target value of embedded variables. The simulation results verify the advantages of the proposed method in convergence, conservatism and multi-scenario analysis efficiency.

     

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