齐宁, 程林, 刘锋. 计及决策依赖不确定性的广义储能可信容量评估[J]. 电网技术, 2023, 47(12): 4916-4925. DOI: 10.13335/j.1000-3673.pst.2023.1328
引用本文: 齐宁, 程林, 刘锋. 计及决策依赖不确定性的广义储能可信容量评估[J]. 电网技术, 2023, 47(12): 4916-4925. DOI: 10.13335/j.1000-3673.pst.2023.1328
QI Ning, CHENG Lin, LIU Feng. Capacity Credit Evaluation of Generic Energy Storage Under Decision-dependent Uncertainty[J]. Power System Technology, 2023, 47(12): 4916-4925. DOI: 10.13335/j.1000-3673.pst.2023.1328
Citation: QI Ning, CHENG Lin, LIU Feng. Capacity Credit Evaluation of Generic Energy Storage Under Decision-dependent Uncertainty[J]. Power System Technology, 2023, 47(12): 4916-4925. DOI: 10.13335/j.1000-3673.pst.2023.1328

计及决策依赖不确定性的广义储能可信容量评估

Capacity Credit Evaluation of Generic Energy Storage Under Decision-dependent Uncertainty

  • 摘要: 高比例可再生能源接入会导致电力系统出现严重的容量充裕度不足问题。通过容量市场,聚合与协同利用广义储能资源是解决该问题的重要手段。针对广义储能可信容量评估问题,首先提出广义储能模型,实现电池储能、温控负荷和电动汽车资源的同质化表征,并且包含运行状态与基线用能的非决策依赖不确定性以及可用容量的决策依赖不确定性刻画;提出一种计及决策依赖不确定性的广义储能可信容量评估方法,其中序贯优化调度实现了日前自身能量管理与日内系统容量支撑的均衡。此外,失响应风险评估有效提升可信容量评估的可信性。算例分析验证了所提方法的有效性、优越性和可信性,可为未来容量市场提供有效评估手段。

     

    Abstract: The increasing integration of renewable energy sources may lead to significant capacity deficiencies in power systems. Aggregated and coordinated generic energy storage resources is essential for addressing this issue via capacity markets. This paper discusses the credibility enhancement of capacity credit of generic energy storage. Firstly, a generic energy storage model is proposed to achieve the unified modeling of batteries, thermostatically controlled loads, and electric vehicles. Meanwhile, the decision-independent uncertainty modeling of operation status and baseline consumption, and the decision-dependent uncertainty modeling of available energy capacity are incorporated. Then, this paper presents a capacity credit evaluation method of generic energy storage under the decision-dependent uncertainty, where a sequential coordinated dispatch is raised to achieve the trade-off between the day-ahead self-energy management of generic energy storage and the real-time adjustment to system capacity deficiency. Additionally, the response unavailability assessment effectively enhances the credibility of evaluation. Finally, the effectiveness, superiority and credibility of the proposed method are verified in the case study, which provides an effective evaluation method for the future capacity market.

     

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