张益岗, 王小君, 孙庆凯, 窦嘉铭, 王英, 刘曌. 基于复杂网络演化博弈的可再生能源技术扩散仿真分析[J]. 电网技术, 2024, 48(4): 1573-1582. DOI: 10.13335/j.1000-3673.pst.2023.0886
引用本文: 张益岗, 王小君, 孙庆凯, 窦嘉铭, 王英, 刘曌. 基于复杂网络演化博弈的可再生能源技术扩散仿真分析[J]. 电网技术, 2024, 48(4): 1573-1582. DOI: 10.13335/j.1000-3673.pst.2023.0886
ZHANG Yigang, WANG Xiaojun, SUN Qingkai, DOU Jiaming, WANG Ying, LIU Zhao. Simulation Analysis of Renewable Energy Technology Diffusion Based on Complex Network Evolutionary Game[J]. Power System Technology, 2024, 48(4): 1573-1582. DOI: 10.13335/j.1000-3673.pst.2023.0886
Citation: ZHANG Yigang, WANG Xiaojun, SUN Qingkai, DOU Jiaming, WANG Ying, LIU Zhao. Simulation Analysis of Renewable Energy Technology Diffusion Based on Complex Network Evolutionary Game[J]. Power System Technology, 2024, 48(4): 1573-1582. DOI: 10.13335/j.1000-3673.pst.2023.0886

基于复杂网络演化博弈的可再生能源技术扩散仿真分析

Simulation Analysis of Renewable Energy Technology Diffusion Based on Complex Network Evolutionary Game

  • 摘要: “双碳”目标下,风光等可再生能源逐步替代煤等传统化石能源是实现电力系统能源转型的必然趋势,开展可再生能源技术扩散研究是模拟分析这一趋势的重要手段。然而,现有可再生能源技术扩散研究多从总体层面关注宏观扩散模型,忽略了发电商群体内部微观复杂博弈过程及相互作用对宏观扩散影响的复杂性。针对该问题,该文基于系统科学与博弈论视角,以发电商群体社会关系构建复杂网络,以不完全信息有限理性特征开展演化博弈。从发电商个体发电策略更新到发电商群体关系演化的逻辑,由点到面地分析可再生能源技术扩散的动态演化过程。基于两种典型复杂网络场景开展仿真,剖析发电商群体关系、政策标准以及市场价格等众多因素对可再生能源技术扩散演化的影响。算例结果既可为政府引导可再生能源技术在发电企业扩散方面提供理论支撑,亦可为演化博弈理论在能源行业中的广泛应用提供有益的借鉴。

     

    Abstract: Under the goal of "double carbon", the gradual replacement of the traditional fossil energy sources such as coal by renewable energy sources such as wind and photovoltaic is an inevitable trend to realize the energy transition of power systems. The renewable energy technology diffusion study is essential to simulate and analyze this trend. However, most of the existing renewable energy technology diffusion studies focus on the macroscopic diffusion models at the general level while ignoring the complexity of the impacts of the microscopic and complex game processes and interactions within the power producer groups on the macroscopic diffusion. Based on the perspective of the system science and the game theory, this paper constructs a complex network based on the social relations between the power producer groups and conducts an evolutionary game with the characteristics of the limited rationality with incomplete information. The dynamic evolution process of renewable energy technology diffusion is analyzed from point to surface, from the update of the individual power producer's generation strategies to the logic of the evolution of the power producers' group relations. Based on the two typical complex network scenarios, the paper analyzes the effects of the power producers' relations, the policy standards, and the market price factors on the evolution of renewable energy technology diffusion. The results may provide a theoretical support for the government to guide the diffusion of renewable energy technology in the power generation enterprises, and also a useful reference for the wide application of evolutionary game theory in the energy industry.

     

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