李笑竹, 王维庆. 基于贝叶斯理论的分布鲁棒优化在储能配置上的应用[J]. 电网技术, 2022, 46(10): 4001-4011. DOI: 10.13335/j.1000-3673.pst.2021.1978
引用本文: 李笑竹, 王维庆. 基于贝叶斯理论的分布鲁棒优化在储能配置上的应用[J]. 电网技术, 2022, 46(10): 4001-4011. DOI: 10.13335/j.1000-3673.pst.2021.1978
LI Xiaozhu, WANG Weiqing. Application of Distributed Robust Optimization Based on Bayesian Theory in Allocation of Energy Storage[J]. Power System Technology, 2022, 46(10): 4001-4011. DOI: 10.13335/j.1000-3673.pst.2021.1978
Citation: LI Xiaozhu, WANG Weiqing. Application of Distributed Robust Optimization Based on Bayesian Theory in Allocation of Energy Storage[J]. Power System Technology, 2022, 46(10): 4001-4011. DOI: 10.13335/j.1000-3673.pst.2021.1978

基于贝叶斯理论的分布鲁棒优化在储能配置上的应用

Application of Distributed Robust Optimization Based on Bayesian Theory in Allocation of Energy Storage

  • 摘要: 为提高可再生能源场站的灵活调节能力,针对具有稳定支撑需求的储能电站配置问题,提出基于贝叶斯理论的分布鲁棒优化方法。其中为科学描述可再生能源出力的随机性,进而准确表征由大规模可再生能源并网导致的调频需求,计及不确定变量概率分布的不确定性,在分布鲁棒优化的基础上,提出利用贝叶斯多元非线性模型与贝叶斯混合效应模型分别构造风电、光伏发电功率的不确定合集。该方法能够弥补现有分布鲁棒中概率分布模糊集构建较为主观且仅针对单一时间断面下不确定量表征的缺陷。最后通过算例验证所提方法在储能配置上的有效性与可行性;并对储能配置结果在发电不确定性因素影响下的敏感性做定量分析。所提方法为面向大规模可再生能源场站,满足其惯量支撑和调频需求的储能配置问题提供理论指导。

     

    Abstract: To improve the flexible regulation ability of renewable energy stations, a distributed robust optimization method based on Bayesian theory is proposed for the allocation of energy storage with stable support demands. To scientifically describe the randomness of renewable energy outputs and accurately characterize the frequency modulation demand caused by large-scale renewable energy grid connections, considering the uncertainty of probability distribution of the uncertain variables, based on the robust optimization of distribution, the Bayesian multivariate nonlinear model and the Bayesian mixed-effect model are proposed to construct the uncertain set of wind power and PV respectively. This method will make up for the defects of the fuzzy set subjectively constructed and the representation of uncertainty only under a single time section. Finally, a case study is given to verify the effectiveness and feasibility of the proposed method in the energy storage configuration. And the sensitivity of energy storage allocation results is quantitatively analyzed under the influence of power generation uncertainty. The method proposed in this paper provides theoretical guidance for energy storage allocation for large-scale renewable energy stations to meet their inertia support and frequency modulation requirements.

     

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