胡阳, 李倩, 房方, 郝雨辰. 基于有限差分运行域的风电场全风况超短期出力动态区间建模[J]. 电网技术, 2022, 46(4): 1346-1354. DOI: 10.13335/j.1000-3673.pst.2021.1821
引用本文: 胡阳, 李倩, 房方, 郝雨辰. 基于有限差分运行域的风电场全风况超短期出力动态区间建模[J]. 电网技术, 2022, 46(4): 1346-1354. DOI: 10.13335/j.1000-3673.pst.2021.1821
HU Yang, LI Qian, FANG Fang, HAO Yuchen. Dynamic Interval Modeling of Ultra-short-term Output of Wind Farm Based on Finite Difference Operating Domains[J]. Power System Technology, 2022, 46(4): 1346-1354. DOI: 10.13335/j.1000-3673.pst.2021.1821
Citation: HU Yang, LI Qian, FANG Fang, HAO Yuchen. Dynamic Interval Modeling of Ultra-short-term Output of Wind Farm Based on Finite Difference Operating Domains[J]. Power System Technology, 2022, 46(4): 1346-1354. DOI: 10.13335/j.1000-3673.pst.2021.1821

基于有限差分运行域的风电场全风况超短期出力动态区间建模

Dynamic Interval Modeling of Ultra-short-term Output of Wind Farm Based on Finite Difference Operating Domains

  • 摘要: 风电功率具有波动大、不确定性强等特点,场级超短期出力在风电机组风况、出力方面的时延性及时空分散性尚未有效解决。首先,针对周期性风向数据,对机组进行风向聚类并划分风向扇区。其次,提出两步相关性分析法,确定对场级出力影响大且相对独立的多元特征风速。然后,基于有限差分运行域定义回归向量,采用长短期记忆神经网络进行超短期时序动态建模,并结合非参数条件核密度估计法和半参数Copula估计法构建区间模型。最后,通过算例仿真验证了动态区间模型的有效性与可靠性。该模型适用分钟级至秒级的风电场动态响应特性建模,对风电场快速一次调频、无功调压等研究具有指导意义。

     

    Abstract: Wind power has the characteristics of large fluctuation and strong uncertainty. The time delay and time- space dispersion of the field level ultra short-term outputs on wind conditions and outputs of wind turbines have not been effectively solved. First, for periodic wind direction data, wind direction clustering is performed and wind direction sectors are divided. Secondly, a two-step correlation analysis method is proposed to determine the multivariate characteristic wind speed which is relatively independent and has a great influence on the field level outputs. Then the regression vector is defined based on the finite difference operating domain, and the long short-term memory neural network is used for ultra-short-term time series dynamic modeling. Combined with the non-parametric conditional kernel density estimation and the semi-parameter Copula method the interval model is constructed. Finally, the validity and reliability of the dynamic interval model is verified by a simulation example. This model is suitable for modeling the dynamic response characteristics of wind farms from minutes to seconds, which has guiding significance for the research of fast primary frequency regulation and reactive power voltage regulation of wind farms.

     

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