李玉志, 刘晓亮, 邢方方, 温国强, 卢楠滟, 何慧, 焦润海. 基于Bi-LSTM和特征关联性分析的日尖峰负荷预测[J]. 电网技术, 2021, 45(7): 2719-2730. DOI: 10.13335/j.1000-3673.pst.2020.1390
引用本文: 李玉志, 刘晓亮, 邢方方, 温国强, 卢楠滟, 何慧, 焦润海. 基于Bi-LSTM和特征关联性分析的日尖峰负荷预测[J]. 电网技术, 2021, 45(7): 2719-2730. DOI: 10.13335/j.1000-3673.pst.2020.1390
LI Yuzhi, LIU XiaoLiang, XING Fangfang, WEN Guoqiang, LU Nanyan, HE Hui, JIAO Runhai. Daily Peak Load Prediction Based on Correlation Analysis and Bi-directional Long Short-term Memory Network[J]. Power System Technology, 2021, 45(7): 2719-2730. DOI: 10.13335/j.1000-3673.pst.2020.1390
Citation: LI Yuzhi, LIU XiaoLiang, XING Fangfang, WEN Guoqiang, LU Nanyan, HE Hui, JIAO Runhai. Daily Peak Load Prediction Based on Correlation Analysis and Bi-directional Long Short-term Memory Network[J]. Power System Technology, 2021, 45(7): 2719-2730. DOI: 10.13335/j.1000-3673.pst.2020.1390

基于Bi-LSTM和特征关联性分析的日尖峰负荷预测

Daily Peak Load Prediction Based on Correlation Analysis and Bi-directional Long Short-term Memory Network

  • 摘要: 近年来,负荷高峰时段电力供需不平衡问题日益突出,电网运行成本增加。为提高尖峰负荷预测准确度,提出了一种基于双向长短期记忆网络和特征关联性分析的日尖峰负荷预测方法。采用描述类、曲线类指标分析不同行业下的用户日峰值负荷特性,并基于Copula函数定量分析多维时序数据之间的关联度,构建基于双向长短期记忆网络的幅值预测模型。由于多峰特性在用电规律中的普通存在,先将连续的历史发生时刻点转为离散的时间段中,再利用幅值模型的预测结果展开基于XGBoost分类器的日峰值负荷出现时段预测。在真实数据集上的实验结果表明,该方法对高位负荷的预测具有较高预测精度,对提高电网削峰填谷和供电服务能力具有重要意义。

     

    Abstract: In recent years, the imbalance between the power supply and demand during the peak load periods has become increasingly prominent, increasing the costs of the power grid operation. A daily peak load forecasting method based on Bi-LSTM (bi-directional long short-term memory) and the feature correlation analysis is proposed to improve the prediction performance. Some descriptive and curve indicators are used to analyze the daily peak load characteristics of the users in different industries and the Copula function is applied to analyze the connection between the multi-dimensional time series data quantitatively. The bi-directional long and short-term memory network model is constructed to predict the magnitude of the daily peak load in the future. Due to the common existence of the multi-peak feature in electricity regularity, the continuous historical occurrence moments are converted into several discrete time periods and then the load occurrence forecasting is carried out based on the result of magnitude prediction and the XGBoost algorithm. Experimental results on the real dataset show that the proposed model has high prediction accuracy for the high-value load and contributes to improve the capabilities of the "peak shaving and valley filling" and other power supply services for the power grids.

     

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