方智淳. 新能源汽车产业链用电量传导关系分析与精细化预测的研究实践[J]. 电力信息与通信技术, 2025, 23(2): 44-50. DOI: 10.16543/j.2095-641x.electric.power.ict.2025.02.06
引用本文: 方智淳. 新能源汽车产业链用电量传导关系分析与精细化预测的研究实践[J]. 电力信息与通信技术, 2025, 23(2): 44-50. DOI: 10.16543/j.2095-641x.electric.power.ict.2025.02.06
FANG Zhichun. Research and Practice on Analysis of Electricity Conductivity Relationship and Refined Forecasting of New Energy Vehicle Industry Chain[J]. Electric Power Information and Communication Technology, 2025, 23(2): 44-50. DOI: 10.16543/j.2095-641x.electric.power.ict.2025.02.06
Citation: FANG Zhichun. Research and Practice on Analysis of Electricity Conductivity Relationship and Refined Forecasting of New Energy Vehicle Industry Chain[J]. Electric Power Information and Communication Technology, 2025, 23(2): 44-50. DOI: 10.16543/j.2095-641x.electric.power.ict.2025.02.06

新能源汽车产业链用电量传导关系分析与精细化预测的研究实践

Research and Practice on Analysis of Electricity Conductivity Relationship and Refined Forecasting of New Energy Vehicle Industry Chain

  • 摘要: 以浙江省内新能源汽车制造业为研究对象,文章提出了一种产业链用电量传导关系分析与产业用电量精细化预测方法,梳理形成产业链图谱,构建上下游电量传导分析模型,在此基础上采用机器学习方法构建了考虑产业链用电量因果关系的产业用电量精细化预测模型。以相关产业近3年的用电量数据构建算例,相关结果验证了所提方法在产业链中长期及年、季、月的重点行业用电量精度预测及电量波动预警方面的有效性。

     

    Abstract: Taking the new energy automobile manufacturing industry in Zhejiang province as the research object, this paper proposes a method for analyzing the transmission relationship of power consumption in the industrial chain and predicting the refinement of industrial power consumption. The industry chain mapping is sorted out and the upstream and downstream electricity conduction analysis model is constructed. On this basis, a machine learning method is used to construct a refined prediction model of industrial electricity consumption that takes into account the causal relationship of industrial chain electricity consumption. The results verify the effectiveness of the proposed method in long-term and annual, quarterly and monthly fine prediction of electricity consumption in key industries in the industrial chain and early warning of electricity fluctuations.

     

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