Abstract:
Due to the significant interdependence among various industries, especially between upstream and downstream sectors, their power loads often mutually influence each other, thereby increasing the complexity of power load forecasting. This study introduces the vector error correction model (VECM) from econometrics into the domain of power load analysis and prediction to examine the mechanism of interaction among multiple industries. The intricate coupling relationship between industries can be quantitatively characterized by considering their individual historical development as well as the impact from other sectors. Based on this model, accurate industry load prediction can be achieved. Comparison of examples shows that the load forecasting method proposed in this study based on the vector error correction model can well represent the coupling relationship between industries, thus providing better support for high-precision industry load forecasting.