郭耀扬, 张利, 韦于思, 李梦宇, 郝颖, 赵波. 基于VECM的工业行业耦合关联特性分析与电力负荷预测[J]. 电力信息与通信技术, 2025, 23(2): 1-10. DOI: 10.16543/j.2095-641x.electric.power.ict.2025.02.01
引用本文: 郭耀扬, 张利, 韦于思, 李梦宇, 郝颖, 赵波. 基于VECM的工业行业耦合关联特性分析与电力负荷预测[J]. 电力信息与通信技术, 2025, 23(2): 1-10. DOI: 10.16543/j.2095-641x.electric.power.ict.2025.02.01
GUO Yaoyang, ZHANG Li, WEI Yusi, LI Mengyu, HAO Ying, ZHAO Bo. Research on Electricity Load Forecasting Technique Considering Inter-industry Coupling and Correlation Characteristics[J]. Electric Power Information and Communication Technology, 2025, 23(2): 1-10. DOI: 10.16543/j.2095-641x.electric.power.ict.2025.02.01
Citation: GUO Yaoyang, ZHANG Li, WEI Yusi, LI Mengyu, HAO Ying, ZHAO Bo. Research on Electricity Load Forecasting Technique Considering Inter-industry Coupling and Correlation Characteristics[J]. Electric Power Information and Communication Technology, 2025, 23(2): 1-10. DOI: 10.16543/j.2095-641x.electric.power.ict.2025.02.01

基于VECM的工业行业耦合关联特性分析与电力负荷预测

Research on Electricity Load Forecasting Technique Considering Inter-industry Coupling and Correlation Characteristics

  • 摘要: 由于不同工业行业间尤其是上下游行业间存在显著的耦合关联关系,电力负荷通常相互影响,从而提升了电力负荷预测难度。文章引入计量经济学中的向量误差修正模型(vector error correction model,VECM)到电力负荷分析预测领域,分析多工业行业间的相互影响机制,从受自身历史发展、受其他行业影响2种不同角度实现对工业行业间复杂耦合关系的量化表征,并基于此模型实现对工业行业负荷的精准预测。实例对比表明,文章基于VECM提出的负荷预测方法能够很好地表征工业行业间的耦合关系,从而更好地支撑高精度的工业行业负荷预测。

     

    Abstract: Due to the significant interdependence among various industries, especially between upstream and downstream sectors, their power loads often mutually influence each other, thereby increasing the complexity of power load forecasting. This study introduces the vector error correction model (VECM) from econometrics into the domain of power load analysis and prediction to examine the mechanism of interaction among multiple industries. The intricate coupling relationship between industries can be quantitatively characterized by considering their individual historical development as well as the impact from other sectors. Based on this model, accurate industry load prediction can be achieved. Comparison of examples shows that the load forecasting method proposed in this study based on the vector error correction model can well represent the coupling relationship between industries, thus providing better support for high-precision industry load forecasting.

     

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