计及电力保险的电力市场主体最优决策
Power Insurance Based Support Optimal Decision of Electricity Market Subjects
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摘要: 为转移可再生能源出力不确定导致的收益风险,引入产出性电力保险,同时考虑可再生能源配额制(RPS)要求,探讨电力市场主体最优交易决策。针对捆绑式可再生能源电力购售,构建了引入条件风险价值的可再生能源发电商与售电公司博弈最优利润模型,并利用逆向归纳法求解在有无电力保险下的最优交易决策。另外,根据RPS要求与用户效益,设计了非捆绑式可再生能源电力的交易策略。算例分析结果表明,引入产出性电力保险能有效促进可再生能源发电商投产积极性,节约售电公司成本,降低绿色证书价格波动对售电公司的影响,对售电公司完成RPS要求具有较强的促进作用。Abstract: In order to transfer the benefit risk caused by the uncertainty of renewable energy(RE) output, the output power insurance is introduced, and the requirement of renewable portfolio standard(RPS) is considered to discuss the optimal trading decision of the electricity market entities. Aiming at the bundled electricity trading of RE, the optimal gaming profit model of RE generators and power retailers are established with the conditional value at risk(CVaR), and the optimal trading decision with and without power insurance is solved by backward induction. In addition, according to the RPS requirements and user benefits,trading strategy of non-bundled electricity of RE is designed. The results of the cases show that the introduction of output power insurance can effectively promote the motivation of RE generators to put into production, save the cost of power retailers, reduce the impact of green certificates price fluctuations on the power retailers, and strongly encourage power retailers to meet RPS requirements.