直驱式波浪发电系统输出功率的短期预测

Short-term Prediction on Output Power of Direct-drive Wave Power Generation System

摘要: 具有随机波动特性的波浪发电系统并网运行会对电力系统的安全稳定运行产生重要的影响。而有效地预测波浪发电系统的输出功率,对于复杂电网的调度和控制具有重要的作用,有利于电网消纳具有随机波动特性的波浪发电系统的电能。以基于阿基米德波能装置的波浪发电系统为例,首先建立了从波面数据到功率的完整简化模型;其次运用时间序列法对实测的海面波浪数据进行预测分析;最后将预测结果代入所建模型中,得到输出功率的预测值。仿真分析和结果验证了预测方法的有效性。

Abstract: Wave energy generation system,whose output power fluctuates randomly,has an important impact on the safety and stability of the power system.It is important to accurately predict the wave output power for the dispatch and control of main grid.In this paper,a complete transformation model from wave power is established for Archimedes wave swing（AWS）.The method of time series analysis is used to predict the wave data.Finally,the predicted wave data is employed into the established model to obtain the output power.Simulation studies and results show the effectiveness of the proposed method.