朱元振, 刘玉田. 考虑源荷不确定性的高风险连锁故障快速筛选[J]. 电力系统自动化, 2023, 47(5): 92-103.
引用本文: 朱元振, 刘玉田. 考虑源荷不确定性的高风险连锁故障快速筛选[J]. 电力系统自动化, 2023, 47(5): 92-103.
ZHU Yuanzhen, LIU Yutian. Fast Screening of High-risk Cascading Failure Considering Uncertainties of Source and Load[J]. Automation of Electric Power Systems, 2023, 47(5): 92-103.
Citation: ZHU Yuanzhen, LIU Yutian. Fast Screening of High-risk Cascading Failure Considering Uncertainties of Source and Load[J]. Automation of Electric Power Systems, 2023, 47(5): 92-103.

考虑源荷不确定性的高风险连锁故障快速筛选

Fast Screening of High-risk Cascading Failure Considering Uncertainties of Source and Load

  • 摘要: 电力系统日益增强的源荷双侧不确定性给动态安全评估带来了更大挑战。基于随机响应面法和深度森林,提出一种考虑源荷不确定性的连锁故障快速筛选方法。首先,提出了结合分布因子的改进随机响应面法(SRSM-DF),快速计算线路连锁开断过程中的随机潮流。然后,基于深度森林提出了SRSM-DF计算误差快速判断方法,该方法可兼顾随机潮流计算的速度和精度。最后,构建了两阶段高风险连锁故障筛选策略,进一步考虑故障导致的切负荷和直流功率损失,并建立了求取连锁故障后果的线性规划模型,以降低连锁故障筛选的计算复杂度。实际电网仿真结果表明,所提方法能够快速筛选得到不确定条件下的高风险连锁故障。

     

    Abstract: The ever-increasing uncertainty on both sides of power source and load brings greater challenges to cascading failure risk assessment. Based on the stochastic response surface method and deep forest, a rapid assessment method of cascading failure risk is proposed considering the uncertainty of power source and load. Firstly, an improved stochastic response surface method combining distributed factor(SRSM-DF) is proposed to quickly calculate the probabilistic load flow in the process of cascading line outages.Then, the calculation error judgment method of SRSM-DF is proposed based on the deep forest, which takes into account the speed and accuracy of the probabilistic power flow calculation. Finally, a two-stage high-risk cascading failure screening strategy is constructed. Further considering the load shedding and DC power loss caused by failures, and the linear programming model for obtaining the cascading failure consequences is established to reduce the computational complexity of cascading failure screening.The simulation results of real-life power grid show that the proposed method can quickly screen high-risk cascading failures under uncertain conditions.

     

/

返回文章
返回