电动汽车充换电站的成本效益模型及敏感性分析
Cost-benefit Model and Its Sensitivity Analysis for Battery Charging and Swapping Station for Electric Vehicles
-
摘要: 电动汽车充换电站(battery charging and swapping station,BCSS)是中国电动汽车应用的重要基础设施之一,得到了广泛关注和示范推广。BCSS的成本收益模型对BCSS商业化推广是至关重要的,文中探讨了电动汽车BCSS的组成结构和运营模式,选择以电池租赁运营模式的BCSS为研究对象,考虑了其投资成本、运营和维护费用、人工薪酬等成本及充换电服务等收益,建立了基于净现值动态评价指标的电动汽车BCSS成本效益模型。最后以中国某大型电动汽车充换示范电站为实例,分析了该电站在全寿命周期内的成本收益模型,并进行了敏感性分析,得出了影响BCSS收益的关键因素依次为充换电服务价格、电池租赁费用、购电价格等。该模型及分析结果为电动汽车BCSS商业化运行提供了成本收益评估和决策依据。Abstract: Battery charging and swapping stations(BCSSs)for electric vehicles has become an important infrastructure contributing to the development and spread of electric vehicles in China.The cost-benefit model of BCSS is crucial for its commercialization.In this paper,the battery lease mode is chosen as the operation mode of the BCSS.On the grounds of the chosen mode,the cost-benefit model of the BCSS based on the time-varying economic assessment index including net present value is built that considers the whole capital costs,the maintenance and operation fees,employee wages and service returns from swap and charging.Finally,with a BCSS based on leased mode in China as an example,the whole life cycle cost-benefit model is presented and the key elements affecting the station’s revenue are found through a sensitivity analysis.The sequence of sensitivity elements is as follows:the battery swapping price,lease rental of batteries,electricity price,and so on.The model of BCSS and its sensitivity analysis has provided a basis for cost-benefit assessment and decision marking for commercial operation of BCSS of electric vehicles.